FK Partizan
vs
Novi Pazar
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Partizan 2–1 Novi Pazar
The model makes it 48% FK Partizan, 26% draw, 26% Novi Pazar — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: FK Partizan 2.20, Novi Pazar 1.30.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Partizan at 48% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar
FK Partizan
- D4-4away to Radnik Surdulica19 September 2026
- L2-3Vojvodina13 September 2026
- L1-2away to FK Crvena Zvezda6 September 2026
- W3-1OFK Beograd31 August 2026
- L1-3away to Mladost Lucani23 August 2026
Novi Pazar
- D2-2Zemun19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cukaricki12 September 2026
- W2-0Železničar Pančevo4 September 2026
- D1-1Macva29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Radnik Surdulica23 August 2026
What these results say
- FK Partizan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FK Partizan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FK Partizan had three goals or more.
- Novi Pazar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar
- 2 May 2026FK Partizan 2–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 9 April 2026Novi Pazar 2–3 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 9 November 2025FK Partizan 2–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 4 May 2025Novi Pazar 2–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 8 March 2025FK Partizan 3–2 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 21 October 2024Novi Pazar 3–4 FK PartizanSuper Liga
Leading scorers: FK Partizan and Novi Pazar
FK Partizan
- E. Kojzek3 goals2 assists
Novi Pazar
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FK Partizan carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.18 for Novi Pazar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for FK Partizan and 1.30 for Novi Pazar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FK Partizan rate 0.74 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Novi Pazar rate 0.48 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Novi Pazar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Partizan the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for FK Partizan against 1.3 for Novi Pazar. FK Partizan's attack/defence rating is 0.74/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.85 for Novi Pazar.