FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: FK Partizan 1-0 Novi Pazar.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% FK Partizan, 23% draw, 24% Novi Pazar — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Serbian SuperLiga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FK Partizan at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. MiloševićG
- 20Samson NwuluD
- 21Sidney LimaD
- 40N. SimićD
- 4M. JurčevičD
- 10I. MiladinovićM
- 14I. BabaM
- 19D. SeckM
- 39Z. IbrahimM
- 8A. ZekovicM
- 9E. KojzekF
- 17M. AleksiÄF
- 90Z. AliloviÄM
- 27N. ČumićF
- 24V. ĐurđevićD
- 89JehF
- 99B. KostićF
- 31M. KrunićG
- 44S. MilićD
- 5M. MilovanovićD
- 1Bogdan MatijaševićG
- 2A. MiljkovićD
- 4Allan De LeónD
- 23J. MarinkovićD
- 14N. StankovicD
- 8Skima TogbeM
- 24I. DavidovićM
- 10D. SadiM
- 6P. GadioM
- 26D. Johnson AgwomM
- 22A. LjajićF
- 11Nikola SkrobonjaM
- 12M. PrekovićG
- 21M. PetrovićM
- 99F. MulićF
- 3V. MirosavićD
- 5S. MelentijevićD
- 9V. KotzebueF
- 18H. KadrićF
- 20K. DixonF
Form going into FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar
FK Partizan
All competitions we cover
- D4-4away to Radnik Surdulica19 September 2026
- L2-3Vojvodina13 September 2026
- L1-2away to FK Crvena Zvezda6 September 2026
- W3-1OFK Beograd31 August 2026
- W2-1Getafe27 August 2026
Novi Pazar
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Zemun19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cukaricki12 September 2026
- W2-0Železničar Pančevo4 September 2026
- D1-1Macva29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Radnik Surdulica23 August 2026
What these results say
- FK Partizan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FK Partizan conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FK Partizan had three goals or more.
- Novi Pazar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Novi Pazar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FK Partizan | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar
- 2 May 2026FK Partizan 2–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 9 April 2026Novi Pazar 2–3 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 9 November 2025FK Partizan 2–0 Novi PazarSuper Liga
- 4 May 2025Novi Pazar 2–1 FK PartizanSuper Liga
- 8 March 2025FK Partizan 3–2 Novi PazarSuper Liga
Leading scorers: FK Partizan and Novi Pazar
FK Partizan
GoalsAssists
- E. Kojzek32
Novi Pazar
GoalsAssists
- K. Dixon52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FK Partizan beat Novi Pazar 1–0. The model had made a win for FK Partizan its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Jeferson Marinho dos Santos 81' for FK Partizan. On expected goals it finished 0.50–1.49.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FK Partizan a 23.6% chance to finish in the top four: 27.7% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 13.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.7%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
For Novi Pazar the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 14.1% going in: 7.1% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 16.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.3%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FK Partizan v Novi Pazar has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is FK Partizan's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- FK Partizan win53%▲ +5
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Novi Pazar win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often FK Partizan's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Novi Pazar's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.