Radomiak Radom
vs
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Radomiak Radom 2–1 Motor Lublin
The model makes it 37% Radomiak Radom, 29% draw, 34% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.46, Motor Lublin 1.39.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Radomiak Radom are 14th on 8 points from 9 games; Motor Lublin are 16th on 6 points from 9 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Radomiak Radom are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Lech Poznan.
- Motor Lublin have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Gornik Zabrze.
- Last 6 meetings: Motor Lublin 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor Lublin.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radomiak Radom at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
Radomiak Radom
- L1-5away to Lech Poznan20 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
- W2-1Cracovia Krakow29 August 2026
- D0-0Zaglebie Lubin23 August 2026
Motor Lublin
- D0-0Gornik Zabrze19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
- L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce22 August 2026
What these results say
- Radomiak Radom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
- 6 April 2026Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 29 September 2025Motor Lublin 2–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 24 May 2025Radomiak Radom 2–3 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 2 December 2024Motor Lublin 1–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 12 July 2024Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs
- 2 February 2024Radomiak Radom 2–1 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin
Radomiak Radom
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Motor Lublin
- K. Czubak5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Radomiak Radom carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.53 for Motor Lublin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.39 for Motor Lublin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radomiak Radom rate 0.65 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Motor Lublin rate 0.71 and 1.36.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radomiak Radom the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Radomiak Radom against 1.39 for Motor Lublin. Radomiak Radom's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.36 for Motor Lublin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Radomiak Radom at home · Motor Lublin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Radomiak Radom 9, Motor Lublin 9.
Radomiak Radom score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Motor Lublin have let in 0 there.
Motor Lublin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Radomiak Radom have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Radomiak Radom
- at Wisla Plock19 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 27%
- at Pogon Szczecin24 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 21%
- vs Slask Wroclaw31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- at Korona Kielce7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 23%
- vs Wisla Krakow21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 29%
Motor Lublin
- vs Slask Wroclaw17 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- vs Zaglebie Lubin23 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- at Cracovia Krakow31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- vs Wisla Plock7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Wieczysta Kraków21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.