Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 1-0 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Philadelphia Union, 28% draw, 35% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18Andre BlakeG
- 39Frankie WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26Nathan HarrielD
- 27Kai WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 21Danley Jean JacquesM
- 4Jovan LukićM
- 19Indiana VassilevM
- 10Milan IloskiF
- 9Bruno DamianiF
- 33Quinn SullivanM
- 23Ezekiel AlladohF
- 8Jesus BuenoM
- 11Alejandro BedoyaM
- 76Andrew RickG
- 5Japhet Sery LarsenD
- 2Geiner MartínezD
- 28Agustin AnelloF
- 16Ben BenderM
- 26Andrew ThomasG
- 85Kalani Kossa-RienziD
- 39Stuart HawkinsD
- 35Antino LopezD
- 5Nouhou ToloD
- 31Hassani DotsonM
- 37Snyder BrunellM
- 17Paul ArriolaM
- 11Albert RusnákM
- 14Paul RothrockM
- 95Osaze De RosarioF
- 53Gallatin SandnesD
- 45Peter KingstonM
- 9Jesús FerreiraF
- 90Sebastian GomezM
- 19Daniel MusovskiF
- 50Max AnchorG
- 24Stefan FreiG
- 28Yeimar GómezD
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders
Philadelphia Union
- W3-1New York Red Bulls22 July 2026
Seattle Sounders
- L1-3away to Austin23 July 2026
- L1-5Portland Timbers17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders
- 1 May 2024Philadelphia Union 2–3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2019Philadelphia Union 0–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 20 September 2018Seattle Sounders 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 1 October 2017Philadelphia Union 2–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 17 April 2016Seattle Sounders 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 24 June 2015Philadelphia Union 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Seattle Sounders
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski12 goals2 assists
Seattle Sounders
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.