New York City FC vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York City FC 3-1 Chicago Fire.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% New York City FC, 31% draw, 35% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York City FC vs Chicago Fire
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 49Matthew FreeseG
- 24Tayvon GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6James SandsD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 32Jonathan ShoreM
- 26Agustin OjedaM
- 7Nicolás FernándezM
- 8Andrés PereaM
- 88Malachi JonesM
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 9Bénie TraoréF
- 87Arnau FarnosF
- 17Hannes WolfF
- 35Mitja IleničD
- 30Tomás RomeroG
- 23Max MurrayD
- 29Máximo CarrizoM
- 15Kevin PierreM
- 99Seymour Garfield-ReidF
- 1Chris BradyG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 16Joel WatermanD
- 3Jack ElliottD
- 14Viktor RadojevićD
- 11Philip ZinckernagelM
- 6Anton SalétrosM
- 42Dje Tah D'AvillaM
- 19Jonathan BambaM
- 17Robin LodF
- 7Maren Haile-SelassieF
- 24Jonathan DeanD
- 9Robert LewandowskiF
- 22Mauricio PinedaD
- 15Andrew GutmanD
- 12Puso DithejaneF
- 44Josh CohenG
- 5Samuel RogersD
- 35Sergio OregelM
- 20Jason ShokalookF
Form going into New York City FC vs Chicago Fire
New York City FC
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew22 July 2026
Chicago Fire
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 38 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 57 | 48 | +9 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Chicago Fire
- 14 September 2025Chicago Fire 1–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2025New York City FC 3–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2024New York City FC 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024Chicago Fire 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 22 October 2023New York City FC 1–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 5 March 2023Chicago Fire 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York City FC and Chicago Fire
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau165
Chicago Fire
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New York City FC beat Chicago Fire 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Chicago Fire at 35% and given a win for New York City FC 34%. The goals: N. Mercau 10' for New York City FC, J. Waterman 21' for Chicago Fire, A. Ojeda 29' for New York City FC, M. Jones 41' for New York City FC. On expected goals it finished 1.39–1.36.