25 July 2026, 23:30 UTC

New York City FC vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result

Yankee Stadium, New York
Full time3 – 1

Final score: New York City FC 3-1 Chicago Fire.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% New York City FC, 31% draw, 35% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Chicago Fire at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽N. Mercau
10'
21'
⚽J. Waterman
⚽A. Ojedaassist: A. Perea
29'
⚽M. Jonesassist: A. Ojeda
41'
46'
🔁M. Haile-Selassieout: R. Lewandowski
46'
🔁L. Barrosoout: J. Dean
51'
D. D'Avilla
N. Mercau
62'
63'
🔁D. D'Avillaout: M. Pineda
🔁M. Jonesout: B. Traore
69'
71'
🔁V. Radojevicout: A. Gutman
71'
🔁R. Lodout: P. Dithejane
77'
J. Waterman
80'
P. Dithejane
🔁Talles Magnoout: H. Wolf
85'
🔁J. Shoreout: A. Farnos
85'
🔁A. Ojedaout: M. Ilenic
90+2'

Match stats — New York City FC vs Chicago Fire

47%Possession53%
10Shots9
3On target5
1Corners2
1.39xG1.36

Goals against chances

New York City FC3 from 1.39 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chicago Fire1 from 1.36 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New York City FC 4-1-4-1
  • 49Matthew FreeseG
  • 24Tayvon GrayD
  • 13Thiago MartinsD
  • 6James SandsD
  • 2Nico CavalloD
  • 32Jonathan ShoreM
  • 26Agustin OjedaM
  • 7Nicolás FernándezM
  • 8Andrés PereaM
  • 88Malachi JonesM
  • 11Talles MagnoF
Substitutes
  • 9Bénie TraoréF
  • 87Arnau FarnosF
  • 17Hannes WolfF
  • 35Mitja IleničD
  • 30Tomás RomeroG
  • 23Max MurrayD
  • 29Máximo CarrizoM
  • 15Kevin PierreM
  • 99Seymour Garfield-ReidF
Coach: Pascal Jansen
Chicago Fire 4-4-2
  • 1Chris BradyG
  • 2Leonardo BarrosoD
  • 16Joel WatermanD
  • 3Jack ElliottD
  • 14Viktor RadojevićD
  • 11Philip ZinckernagelM
  • 6Anton SalétrosM
  • 42Dje Tah D'AvillaM
  • 19Jonathan BambaM
  • 17Robin LodF
  • 7Maren Haile-SelassieF
Substitutes
  • 24Jonathan DeanD
  • 9Robert LewandowskiF
  • 22Mauricio PinedaD
  • 15Andrew GutmanD
  • 12Puso DithejaneF
  • 44Josh CohenG
  • 5Samuel RogersD
  • 35Sergio OregelM
  • 20Jason ShokalookF
Coach: Mario Barcena

Form going into New York City FC vs Chicago Fire

New York City FC

  • W2-1away to Columbus Crew22 July 2026

Chicago Fire

  • L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: New York City FC vs Chicago Fire

  • 14 September 2025Chicago Fire 1–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 25 May 2025New York City FC 3–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 24 August 2024New York City FC 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 14 July 2024Chicago Fire 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 22 October 2023New York City FC 1–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 5 March 2023Chicago Fire 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: New York City FC and Chicago Fire

New York City FC

  • N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists

Chicago Fire

  • H. Cuypers13 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.