25 July 2026, 23:30 UTC

CF Montreal vs Inter Miami Major League Soccer prediction & result

Saputo Stadium, Montreal
Full time0 – 1

Final score: CF Montreal 0-1 Inter Miami.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% CF Montreal, 21% draw, 40% Inter Miami — fair odds of 2.56, 4.76 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Inter Miami at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
I. Fray
59'
🔁S. Reguilonout: N. Allen
🔁S. Pietteout: D. Pereira
61'
🔁D. Riosout: N. Streit
62'
🔁M. Longstaffout: F. Herbers
80'
80'
🔁G. Berterameout: P. Plambeck
81'
⚽L. Suarez (pen)
84'
T. Segovia
🔁V. Loturiout: O. Escobar
90+6'
90+8'
🔁Y. Brightout: D. Ruiz
🔁E. Moralesout: B. Craig
90+11'

Match stats — CF Montreal vs Inter Miami

43%Possession57%
8Shots20
2On target2
5Corners6
2.07xG1.72

Goals against chances

CF Montreal0 from 2.07 xGless than the chances were worth
Inter Miami1 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CF Montreal 4-3-3
  • 1Sebastian BrezaG
  • 27Dawid BugajD
  • 24Efraín MoralesD
  • 4Brayan VeraD
  • 13Luca PetrassoD
  • 8Matthew LongstaffM
  • 6Samuel PietteM
  • 22Victor LoturiM
  • 18Hennadii SynchukF
  • 9Prince OwusuF
  • 14Daniel RiosF
Substitutes
  • 7Daniel PereiraM
  • 23Noah StreitM
  • 21Fabian HerbersF
  • 5Brandan CraigD
  • 29Olger EscobarF
  • 41Samsy KeitaG
  • 2Jalen NealD
  • 26Ivan LosenkoM
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy
Inter Miami 4-4-2
  • 34Rocco Ríos NovoG
  • 4Facundo MuraD
  • 17Ian FrayD
  • 16MicaelD
  • 3Sergio ReguilónD
  • 42Yannick BrightM
  • 5CasemiroM
  • 8Telasco SegoviaM
  • 24Mateo SilvettiM
  • 19Germán BerterameF
  • 9Luis SuárezF
Substitutes
  • 32Noah AllenD
  • 59Preston PlambeckM
  • 41David RuízM
  • 97Dayne St. ClairG
  • 76Ezequiel Abadia-RedaD
  • 70Daniel SumallaD
  • 55Ian UrkidiM
  • 52Diego ReyF
  • 56Daniel PinterF
Coach: Guillermo Hoyos Angel

Form going into CF Montreal vs Inter Miami

CF Montreal

  • L0-1away to Nashville SC23 July 2026

Inter Miami

  • W3-2Chicago Fire22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Inter Miami

  • 5 July 2025CF Montreal 1–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 28 May 2025Inter Miami 4–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 11 May 2024CF Montreal 2–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 10 March 2024Inter Miami 2–3 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 27 May 2023CF Montreal 1–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 26 February 2023Inter Miami 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Inter Miami

CF Montreal

  • P. Owusu13 goals6 assists

Inter Miami

  • L. Messi19 goals11 assists
  • L. Suárez11 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.