New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New England Revolution 4-1 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% New England Revolution, 33% draw, 29% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.03 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New England Revolution at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Matt TurnerG
- 8Matt PolsterD
- 22Ethan KohlerD
- 2Mamadou FofanaD
- 23William SandsD
- 10Carles GilM
- 21Brooklyn RainesM
- 80Alhassan YusufM
- 25Peyton MillerF
- 11Dor TurgemanF
- 17Marcos ZambranoF
- 14Jackson YueillM
- 7Griffin YowF
- 41Luca LangoniF
- 27Wilson HarrisF
- 15Cody BakerD
- 33Donovan ParisianG
- 4Tanner BeasonD
- 77Diego FagúndezM
- 65Judah SiqueiraF
- 1Lucas HoyosG
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 5Stian GregersenD
- 6Junior AlonsoD
- 3Elías BáezD
- 28William ReillyM
- 8Tristan MuyumbaM
- 59Aleksey MiranchukM
- 48Cooper SanchezM
- 10Miguel AlmirónM
- 22Fafà PicaultF
- 20Luke BrennanM
- 2Ronald HernándezD
- 4Enea MihajD
- 30Cayman TogashiF
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 41Toto MajubD
- 56Ignacio Suarez-CouriM
- 16Adrian GillM
- 39Arif KovacF
Form going into New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Toronto FC22 July 2026
Atlanta United FC
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Charlotte23 July 2026
- L0-1away to Nashville SC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | New England Revolution | 32 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 58 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC
- 22 April 2026Atlanta United FC 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 27 September 2025New England Revolution 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025Atlanta United FC 0–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 8 February 2025Atlanta United FC 2–0 New England RevolutionFriendlies Clubs
- 3 July 2024New England Revolution 2–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 10 March 2024Atlanta United FC 4–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
New England Revolution beat Atlanta United FC 4–1. The model had made a win for New England Revolution its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: C. Gil 11' for New England Revolution, D. Turgeman 36' for New England Revolution, P. Miller 56' for New England Revolution, B. Raines 67' for New England Revolution, M. Almiron 85' for Atlanta United FC. On expected goals it finished 2.02–1.61.