25 July 2026, 23:30 UTC

New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Gillette Stadium, Boston
Full time4 – 1

Final score: New England Revolution 4-1 Atlanta United FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% New England Revolution, 33% draw, 29% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.03 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts New England Revolution at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. Gilassist: M. Polster
11'
A. Yusuf
20'
31'
M. Edwards
⚽D. Turgemanassist: A. Yusuf
36'
52'
W. Reilly
⚽P. Millerassist: M. Polster
56'
🔁A. Yusufout: J. Yueill
59'
59'
🔁T. Muyumbaout: L. Brennan
⚽B. Rainesassist: M. Zambrano
67'
🔁M. Zambranoout: L. Langoni
68'
🔁D. Turgemanout: W. Harris
68'
🔁P. Millerout: G. Yow
68'
69'
🔁M. Edwardsout: R. Hernandez
W. Harris
70'
79'
🔁S. Gregersenout: E. Mihaj
79'
🔁F. Picaultout: C. Togashi
🔁M. Polsterout: C. Baker
79'
85'
⚽M. Almironassist: A. Miranchuk

Match stats — New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC

46%Possession54%
11Shots17
7On target6
4Corners6
2.02xG1.61

Goals against chances

New England Revolution4 from 2.02 xGmore than the chances were worth
Atlanta United FC1 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

New England Revolution 4-3-3
  • 30Matt TurnerG
  • 8Matt PolsterD
  • 22Ethan KohlerD
  • 2Mamadou FofanaD
  • 23William SandsD
  • 10Carles GilM
  • 21Brooklyn RainesM
  • 80Alhassan YusufM
  • 25Peyton MillerF
  • 11Dor TurgemanF
  • 17Marcos ZambranoF
Substitutes
  • 14Jackson YueillM
  • 7Griffin YowF
  • 41Luca LangoniF
  • 27Wilson HarrisF
  • 15Cody BakerD
  • 33Donovan ParisianG
  • 4Tanner BeasonD
  • 77Diego FagúndezM
  • 65Judah SiqueiraF
Coach: Marko Mitrovic
Atlanta United FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lucas HoyosG
  • 47Matthew EdwardsD
  • 5Stian GregersenD
  • 6Junior AlonsoD
  • 3Elías BáezD
  • 28William ReillyM
  • 8Tristan MuyumbaM
  • 59Aleksey MiranchukM
  • 48Cooper SanchezM
  • 10Miguel AlmirónM
  • 22Fafà PicaultF
Substitutes
  • 20Luke BrennanM
  • 2Ronald HernándezD
  • 4Enea MihajD
  • 30Cayman TogashiF
  • 42Jayden HibbertG
  • 41Toto MajubD
  • 56Ignacio Suarez-CouriM
  • 16Adrian GillM
  • 39Arif KovacF
Coach: Gerardo Martino

Form going into New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC

New England Revolution

  • D0-0Toronto FC22 July 2026

Atlanta United FC

  • D2-2away to Charlotte23 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Nashville SC18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC

  • 22 April 2026Atlanta United FC 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 27 September 2025New England Revolution 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 12 April 2025Atlanta United FC 0–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 8 February 2025Atlanta United FC 2–0 New England RevolutionFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 July 2024New England Revolution 2–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 10 March 2024Atlanta United FC 4–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.