25 July 2026, 23:15 UTC

Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result

ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Columbus Crew 2-1 FC Cincinnati.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Columbus Crew, 20% draw, 60% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 5.00, 5.00 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Cincinnati at 60% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽K. Denkeyassist: Evander
⚽J. Thiareassist: D. Chambost
41'
⚽D. Gazdag (pen)
45+6'
🔁S. Bangouraout: A. Gomes
46'
64'
🔁K. Mbomaout: T. Barlow
64'
🔁E. Echeniqueout: B. J. Ramirez Leon
66'
M. Miazga
🔁D. Chambostout: T. Karumanchi
70'
70'
🔁M. Miazgaout: K. Smith
70'
🔁K. Denkeyout: A. Jabbari
🔁J. Thiareout: H. Picard
79'
85'
🔁O. Nwobodoout: T. Anunga
🔁D. Gazdagout: C. Adams
85'
🔁S. Moreiraout: M. Amundsen
85'
90+4'
G. Valenzuela

Match stats — Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati

53%Possession47%
13Shots12
6On target5
4Corners5
2.29xG0.84

Goals against chances

Columbus Crew2 from 2.29 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Cincinnati1 from 0.84 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Columbus Crew 3-4-2-1
  • 28Patrick SchulteG
  • 31Steven MoreiraD
  • 4Rudy CamachoD
  • 25Sean ZawadzkiD
  • 23Mohamed FarsiM
  • 7Dylan ChambostM
  • 17Sekou Tidiany BangouraM
  • 27Maximilian ArfstenM
  • 16Taha HabrouneF
  • 8Dániel GazdagF
  • 19Jamal ThiaréF
Substitutes
  • 20André GomesM
  • 50Tarun KarumanchiM
  • 30Hugo PicardM
  • 18Malte AmundsenD
  • 46Chase AdamsF
  • 1Nicholas HagenG
  • 12Cesar RuvalcabaD
  • 45Owen PresthusD
  • 14Amar SejdicM
Coach: Laurent Courtois
FC Cincinnati 3-4-3
  • 18Roman CelentanoG
  • 11Samuel GidiD
  • 21Matt MiazgaD
  • 12Miles RobinsonD
  • 20Pavel BuchaM
  • 22Gerardo ValenzuelaM
  • 5Obinna NwobodoM
  • 66Ender EcheniqueM
  • 17Kenji Mboma DemF
  • 9Kévin DenkeyF
  • 10EvanderF
Substitutes
  • 29Bryan RamirezD
  • 16Tom BarlowF
  • 24Kyle SmithD
  • 99Ayoub JabbariF
  • 27Tah AnungaM
  • 13Evan LouroG
  • 2Alvas PowellD
  • 4Nick HagglundD
  • 15Teenage HadebeD
Coach: Pat Noonan

Form going into Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati

Columbus Crew

  • L1-2New York City FC22 July 2026

FC Cincinnati

  • W4-3Vancouver Whitecaps22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati

  • 8 November 2025FC Cincinnati 2–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 2 November 2025Columbus Crew 4–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 27 October 2025FC Cincinnati 1–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 12 July 2025FC Cincinnati 2–4 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 17 May 2025Columbus Crew 1–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 14 September 2024FC Cincinnati 0–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati

Columbus Crew

No leading scorers listed yet.

FC Cincinnati

  • K. Denkey13 goals2 assists
  • Evander12 goals8 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.