Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Columbus Crew 2-1 FC Cincinnati.
Before kick-off the model made it 20% Columbus Crew, 20% draw, 60% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 5.00, 5.00 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Cincinnati at 60% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28Patrick SchulteG
- 31Steven MoreiraD
- 4Rudy CamachoD
- 25Sean ZawadzkiD
- 23Mohamed FarsiM
- 7Dylan ChambostM
- 17Sekou Tidiany BangouraM
- 27Maximilian ArfstenM
- 16Taha HabrouneF
- 8Dániel GazdagF
- 19Jamal ThiaréF
- 20André GomesM
- 50Tarun KarumanchiM
- 30Hugo PicardM
- 18Malte AmundsenD
- 46Chase AdamsF
- 1Nicholas HagenG
- 12Cesar RuvalcabaD
- 45Owen PresthusD
- 14Amar SejdicM
- 18Roman CelentanoG
- 11Samuel GidiD
- 21Matt MiazgaD
- 12Miles RobinsonD
- 20Pavel BuchaM
- 22Gerardo ValenzuelaM
- 5Obinna NwobodoM
- 66Ender EcheniqueM
- 17Kenji Mboma DemF
- 9Kévin DenkeyF
- 10EvanderF
- 29Bryan RamirezD
- 16Tom BarlowF
- 24Kyle SmithD
- 99Ayoub JabbariF
- 27Tah AnungaM
- 13Evan LouroG
- 2Alvas PowellD
- 4Nick HagglundD
- 15Teenage HadebeD
Form going into Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
All competitions we cover
- L1-2New York City FC22 July 2026
FC Cincinnati
All competitions we cover
- W4-3Vancouver Whitecaps22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 52 | 49 | +3 | 41 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 66 | 73 | -7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs FC Cincinnati
- 8 November 2025FC Cincinnati 2–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 2 November 2025Columbus Crew 4–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 27 October 2025FC Cincinnati 1–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 12 July 2025FC Cincinnati 2–4 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 17 May 2025Columbus Crew 1–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2024FC Cincinnati 0–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 52 league goals as a side.
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey173
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Columbus Crew beat FC Cincinnati 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Cincinnati at 60% and given a win for Columbus Crew 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: K. Denkey 9' for FC Cincinnati, J. Thiare 41' for Columbus Crew, D. Gazdag (penalty) 45+6' for Columbus Crew. Sent off: G. Valenzuela (FC Cincinnati) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 2.29–0.84.