Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 2-1 Real Salt Lake.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Philadelphia Union, 20% draw, 18% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Philadelphia Union at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 21D. Jean-JacquesM
- 4J. LukićM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 23E. AlladohF
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 16B. BenderM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 2G. MartínezD
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 76A. RickG
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 2D. YedlinD
- 26P. QuintonD
- 3K. HenryD
- 11D. MarczukM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 29S. JunquaM
- 39A. HezarkhaniM
- 9M. GuilavoguiM
- 22S. SolansF
- 44L. De FougerollesD
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 98A. KatránisD
- 12S. LobzhanidzeF
- 34L. MoisaM
- 19A. PiolF
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 31M. StajduharG
- 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
Philadelphia Union
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
- W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
Real Salt Lake
All competitions we cover
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
- L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
- Real Salt Lake failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 50 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 53 | 52 | +1 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
- 27 April 2024Philadelphia Union 1–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2019Real Salt Lake 4–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 19 May 2018Philadelphia Union 4–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 28 May 2017Real Salt Lake 1–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 31 July 2016Philadelphia Union 1–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans154
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Philadelphia Union beat Real Salt Lake 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Philadelphia Union at 62%. The goals: Bruno Damiani 31' for Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski 81' for Philadelphia Union, Saba Lobjanidze 90+6' for Real Salt Lake. On expected goals it finished 1.85–0.83.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Philadelphia Union a 22.7% chance to finish in the top four: 27.7% after a win, 14.0% after a draw, 9.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.7%, 5 points higher than before the match.
For Real Salt Lake the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 33.2% going in: 15.6% after a win, 27.5% after a draw, 38.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.1%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 57% / 23% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 62% / 20% / 18%: the biggest move is Philadelphia Union's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Philadelphia Union win62%▲ +5
- Draw20%▼ −3
- Real Salt Lake win18%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.