Philadelphia Union
vs
Real Salt Lake
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Philadelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt Lake
The model makes it 57% Philadelphia Union, 23% draw, 20% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.64, Real Salt Lake 1.10.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 57% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
Philadelphia Union
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
- W5-0FC Cincinnati9 September 2026
- W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
- W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
Real Salt Lake
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
- L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Houston Dynamo10 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC6 September 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
- Real Salt Lake did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski13 goals2 assists
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Philadelphia Union carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.35 for Real Salt Lake. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.64 goals for Philadelphia Union and 1.10 for Real Salt Lake. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Philadelphia Union rate 0.91 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Salt Lake rate 0.58 and 1.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Philadelphia Union against 1.1 for Real Salt Lake. Philadelphia Union's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.59 for Real Salt Lake.