Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Orlando City SC 3-2 Columbus Crew.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Orlando City SC, 24% draw, 32% Columbus Crew — fair odds of 2.27, 4.17 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Orlando City SC at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 6R. JanssonD
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 87Marco PasalicM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 23Harvey SarajianM
- 10M. OjedaF
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 11TiagoF
- 9D. DikeF
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 22Justin EllisF
- 44Bernardo Rhein GoncalvesF
- 57IagoD
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 28P. SchulteG
- 23M. FarsiD
- 31S. MoreiraD
- 25S. ZawadzkiD
- 18M. AmundsenD
- 21A. ZarouryM
- 7D. ChambostM
- 16T. HabrouneM
- 8S. RodríguezM
- 10Brais MéndezF
- 77Josef MartínezF
- 4R. CamachoD
- 3E. BaillyD
- 26L. GiacconeM
- 2M. HerreraD
- 11B. LennonD
- 20André GomesM
- 33G. TapiaF
- 1N. HagenG
- 17S. BangouraM
Form going into Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew
Orlando City SC
All competitions we cover
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Atlanta United FC9 September 2026
- W1-0San Diego5 September 2026
Columbus Crew
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Inter Miami27 September 2026
- W2-0away to CF Montreal19 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
- L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids5 September 2026
What these results say
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
- Columbus Crew scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Orlando City SC | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 63 | 78 | -15 | 46 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew
- 16 September 2026Columbus Crew 2–1 Orlando City SCUS Open Cup
- 12 April 2026Columbus Crew 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 4 October 2025Orlando City SC 1–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 25 July 2025Columbus Crew 1–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2024Columbus Crew 4–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda164
- A. Griezmann147
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 59 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Orlando City SC beat Columbus Crew 3–2. The model had made a win for Orlando City SC its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Harvey Graham Sarajian 1' for Orlando City SC, Taha Habroune 7' for Columbus Crew, Antoine Griezmann 16' for Orlando City SC, Brais Méndez 53' for Columbus Crew, Iván Angulo 89' for Orlando City SC. On expected goals it finished 1.80–3.13.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Orlando City SC a 5.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 11.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.
For Columbus Crew the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 35.5% going in: 20.5% after a win, 34.9% after a draw, 45.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.6%, 10.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 24% / 32%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Orlando City SC win44%▲ +1
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Columbus Crew win32%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.