New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New England Revolution 0-3 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% New England Revolution, 26% draw, 26% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
New England Revolution at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30M. TurnerG
- 8M. PolsterD
- 22E. KohlerD
- 66J. WynderD
- 23W. SandsD
- 10Carles GilM
- 21B. RainesM
- 14J. YueillM
- 41L. LangoniF
- 99D. TurgemanF
- 25P. MillerF
- 15C. BakerD
- 4T. BeasonD
- 77D. FagundezM
- 12I. FeingoldD
- 16D. GazdagM
- 27W. HarrisF
- 33D. ParisianG
- 65J. SiqueiraM
- 7G. YowF
- 26A. ThomasG
- 16A. RoldanD
- 28Y. GómezD
- 25J. RagenD
- 5N. ToloD
- 31H. DotsonM
- 7C. RoldanM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 11A. RusnákM
- 90S. GomezM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 45P. KingstonM
- 85K. Kossa-RienziM
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 24S. FreiG
- 27J. FerreiraF
- 8C. ClarkM
- 37S. BrunellM
- 17P. ArriolaF
Form going into New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders
New England Revolution
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chicago Fire13 September 2026
- W2-1away to New York City FC10 September 2026
- L1-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy6 September 2026
Seattle Sounders
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
- D3-3away to Colorado Rapids20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy13 September 2026
What these results say
- New England Revolution conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.
- New England Revolution scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New England Revolution | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 47 | +8 | 58 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders
- 7 July 2024Seattle Sounders 2–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2019Seattle Sounders 3–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 7 July 2018New England Revolution 0–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 30 April 2017Seattle Sounders 3–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Seattle Sounders won 3–0 at New England Revolution. The model had leaned towards a win for New England Revolution at 48% and given a win for Seattle Sounders 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Hassani Dotson 15' for Seattle Sounders, Dejan Joveljić 74' for Seattle Sounders, Paul Arriola 81' for Seattle Sounders. On expected goals it finished 0.63–1.29.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave New England Revolution a 69.0% chance to finish in the top four: 78.7% after a win, 64.5% after a draw, 54.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.6%, 14.4 points lower than before the match.
For Seattle Sounders the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 2.9% going in: 7.0% after a win, 1.9% after a draw, 1.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.0%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on New England Revolution v Seattle Sounders has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- New England Revolution win48%▲ +1
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Seattle Sounders win26%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.