New York Red Bulls
vs
San Diego
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New York Red Bulls 2–1 San Diego
The model makes it 36% New York Red Bulls, 29% draw, 35% San Diego — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 1.47, San Diego 1.43.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: New York Red Bulls and San Diego are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 36% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
New York Red Bulls
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
San Diego
- D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
- L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
- W3-1Los Angeles Galaxy30 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York Red Bulls had two goals or fewer.
- San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Diego failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New York Red Bulls carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.49 for San Diego. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.43 for San Diego. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York Red Bulls rate 0.56 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Diego rate 0.70 and 1.44.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York Red Bulls the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for New York Red Bulls against 1.43 for San Diego. New York Red Bulls's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.44 for San Diego.