New York Red Bulls vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 4-1 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% New York Red Bulls, 26% draw, 38% San Diego — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
San Diego at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazánD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 48R. DonkorM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 37M. SofoM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 16J. HallF
- 7C. CowellF
- 8D. RuízM
- 88Pedro CastroM
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 60S. KoneM
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 26T. ParkerD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 20A. GodoyM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 8O. ValakariM
- 97C. McVeyD
- 94C. BakambuF
- 70A. AlvaradoF
- 36David Evra Mimbang NyangonoM
- 14B. B. ZambleF
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
San Diego
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
- L2-3San Jose Earthquakes10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York Red Bulls had two goals or fewer.
- San Diego did not win any of these 5 matches.
- San Diego conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Diego had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 13 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- 15 February 2025San Diego 6–0 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
New York Red Bulls beat San Diego 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for San Diego at 38% and given a win for New York Red Bulls 36%. The goals: Julian Hall 15' for New York Red Bulls, Devin Padelford 20' for New York Red Bulls, Jorge Ruvalcaba 27' for New York Red Bulls, Cédric Bakambu 60' for San Diego, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 90+3' for New York Red Bulls. On expected goals it finished 3.08–2.11.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave New York Red Bulls a 17.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.7% after a win, 20.6% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.7%, 10.1 points lower than before the match.
For San Diego the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.5% going in: 8.0% after a win, 19.2% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.5%, 8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on New York Red Bulls v San Diego has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 26% / 38%: the biggest move is San Diego's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- New York Red Bulls win36%=
- Draw26%▼ −3
- San Diego win38%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.