Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 3-1 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Philadelphia Union, 24% draw, 55% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 55% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18Andre BlakeG
- 39Frankie WestfieldD
- 26Nathan HarrielD
- 5Japhet Sery LarsenD
- 27Kai WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 21Danley Jean JacquesM
- 4Jovan LukićM
- 19Indiana VassilevM
- 9Bruno DamianiF
- 10Milan IloskiF
- 44Neil PierreD
- 33Quinn SullivanM
- 8Jesus BuenoM
- 23Ezekiel AlladohF
- 76Andrew RickG
- 2Geiner MartínezD
- 16Ben BenderM
- 28Agustin AnelloF
- 11Alejandro BedoyaM
- 34Ethan HorvathG
- 3Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyD
- 2Justin CheD
- 12Dylan NealisD
- 56Matthew Dos SantosD
- 48Ronald DonkorM
- 15Adri MehmetiM
- 10Emil ForsbergM
- 7Cade CowellF
- 16Julian HallF
- 11Jorge RuvalcabaF
- 5Omar ValenciaD
- 14Julián BazánD
- 4Gustav BerggrenM
- 37Mohammed SofoF
- 77John McCarthyG
- 26Tim ParkerD
- 80Nathan WorthM
- 91Mijahir JiménezF
- 70Andy RojasF
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
- 22 July 2026Philadelphia Union 3–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 16 August 2025New York Red Bulls 1–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 13 August 2025Philadelphia Union 3–2 New York Red BullsUS Open Cup
- 12 July 2025Philadelphia Union 2–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2024New York Red Bulls 0–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2024Philadelphia Union 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski12 goals2 assists
New York Red Bulls
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.