Columbus Crew vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Columbus Crew 1-2 New York City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Columbus Crew, 29% draw, 47% New York City FC — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Columbus Crew vs New York City FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28Patrick SchulteG
- 23Mohamed FarsiD
- 25Sean ZawadzkiD
- 4Rudy CamachoD
- 18Malte AmundsenD
- 90Nariman AkhundzadeM
- 50Tarun KarumanchiM
- 17Sekou Tidiany BangouraM
- 27Maximilian ArfstenM
- 19Jamal ThiaréF
- 16Taha HabrouneF
- 30Hugo PicardM
- 31Steven MoreiraD
- 7Dylan ChambostM
- 8Dániel GazdagM
- 46Chase AdamsF
- 1Nicholas HagenG
- 12Cesar RuvalcabaD
- 45Owen PresthusD
- 14Amar SejdicM
- 49Matthew FreeseG
- 24Tayvon GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6James SandsD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 32Jonathan ShoreM
- 26Agustin OjedaM
- 7Nicolás FernándezM
- 8Andrés PereaM
- 88Malachi JonesM
- 9Bénie TraoréF
- 17Hannes WolfF
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 15Kevin PierreM
- 29Máximo CarrizoM
- 30Tomás RomeroG
- 35Mitja IleničD
- 23Max MurrayD
- 87Arnau FarnosF
- 99Seymour Garfield-ReidF
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Columbus Crew | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 52 | 49 | +3 | 41 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs New York City FC
- 20 May 2026Columbus Crew 1–0 New York City FCUS Open Cup
- 10 May 2026New York City FC 3–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 17 September 2025New York City FC 3–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 22 March 2025Columbus Crew 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2024Columbus Crew 4–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Columbus Crew and New York City FC
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 52 league goals as a side.
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau165
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
New York City FC won 2–1 at Columbus Crew. The model had made a win for New York City FC its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: N. Mercau (penalty) 28' for New York City FC, A. Ojeda 70' for New York City FC, D. Gazdag (penalty) 90+3' for Columbus Crew. On expected goals it finished 1.67–1.41.