22 July 2026, 23:30 UTC

Columbus Crew vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Columbus Crew 1-2 New York City FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Columbus Crew, 29% draw, 47% New York City FC — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts New York City FC at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽N. Mercau (pen)
40'
T. Gray
55'
🔁M. Jonesout: Talles Magno
55'
🔁B. Traoreout: H. Wolf
J. Thiare
57'
M. Arfsten
60'
🔁T. Karumanchiout: H. Picard
63'
🔁M. Amundsenout: S. Moreira
64'
70'
⚽A. Ojedaassist: Talles Magno
🔁S. Bangouraout: D. Chambost
74'
🔁J. Thiareout: D. Gazdag
75'
77'
🔁J. Shoreout: K. Pierre
T. Habroune
82'
83'
🔁N. Cavalloout: M. Carrizo
🔁N. Akhundzadeout: C. Adams
83'
⚽D. Gazdag (pen)
90+3'
90+5'
J. Sands

Match stats — Columbus Crew vs New York City FC

59%Possession41%
11Shots8
4On target5
3Corners0
1.67xG1.41

Goals against chances

Columbus Crew1 from 1.67 xGless than the chances were worth
New York City FC2 from 1.41 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Columbus Crew 4-4-2
  • 28Patrick SchulteG
  • 23Mohamed FarsiD
  • 25Sean ZawadzkiD
  • 4Rudy CamachoD
  • 18Malte AmundsenD
  • 90Nariman AkhundzadeM
  • 50Tarun KarumanchiM
  • 17Sekou Tidiany BangouraM
  • 27Maximilian ArfstenM
  • 19Jamal ThiaréF
  • 16Taha HabrouneF
Substitutes
  • 30Hugo PicardM
  • 31Steven MoreiraD
  • 7Dylan ChambostM
  • 8Dániel GazdagM
  • 46Chase AdamsF
  • 1Nicholas HagenG
  • 12Cesar RuvalcabaD
  • 45Owen PresthusD
  • 14Amar SejdicM
Coach: Laurent Courtois
New York City FC 4-1-4-1
  • 49Matthew FreeseG
  • 24Tayvon GrayD
  • 13Thiago MartinsD
  • 6James SandsD
  • 2Nico CavalloD
  • 32Jonathan ShoreM
  • 26Agustin OjedaM
  • 7Nicolás FernándezM
  • 8Andrés PereaM
  • 88Malachi JonesM
  • 9Bénie TraoréF
Substitutes
  • 17Hannes WolfF
  • 11Talles MagnoF
  • 15Kevin PierreM
  • 29Máximo CarrizoM
  • 30Tomás RomeroG
  • 35Mitja IleničD
  • 23Max MurrayD
  • 87Arnau FarnosF
  • 99Seymour Garfield-ReidF
Coach: Pascal Jansen

Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs New York City FC

  • 22 July 2026Columbus Crew 1–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 20 May 2026Columbus Crew 1–0 New York City FCUS Open Cup
  • 10 May 2026New York City FC 3–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 17 September 2025New York City FC 3–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 22 March 2025Columbus Crew 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 31 August 2024Columbus Crew 4–2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Columbus Crew and New York City FC

Columbus Crew

No leading scorers listed yet.

New York City FC

  • N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.