22 July 2026, 23:30 UTC

FC Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps Major League Soccer prediction & result

TQL Stadium, Cincinnati
Full time4 – 3

Final score: FC Cincinnati 4-3 Vancouver Whitecaps.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% FC Cincinnati, 21% draw, 28% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 1.96, 4.76 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Cincinnati at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
T. Blackmon
⚽P. Buchaassist: S. Gidi
9'
12'
⚽J. Badwalassist: B. Caicedo
17'
M. Laborda
25'
⚽R. Gauldassist: O. Larraz
⚽K. Denkeyassist: E. Echenique
28'
⚽Evanderassist: G. Valenzuela
36'
P. Bucha
41'
44'
🔁B. Caicedoout: C. Sabaly
48'
E. Ocampo
⚽P. Buchaassist: Evander
56'
58'
⚽R. Gauldassist: J. Badwal
59'
A. Cubas
62'
🔁J. Badwalout: J. Ngando
63'
🔁R. Gauldout: N. Djordjevic
🔁E. Echeniqueout: B. J. Ramirez Leon
64'
🔁K. Mbomaout: T. Barlow
64'
🔁M. Robinsonout: K. Smith
64'
78'
B. White
84'
🔁E. Ocampoout: R. Veselinovic
84'
🔁A. Cubasout: R. Elloumi
🔁K. Denkeyout: A. Jabbari
89'
🔁S. Gidiout: T. Hadebe
89'

Match stats — FC Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps

38%Possession62%
10Shots19
6On target6
1Corners3
1.56xG1.82

Goals against chances

FC Cincinnati4 from 1.56 xGmore than the chances were worth
Vancouver Whitecaps3 from 1.82 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati 3-4-2-1
  • 18Roman CelentanoG
  • 12Miles RobinsonD
  • 21Matt MiazgaD
  • 11Samuel GidiD
  • 20Pavel BuchaM
  • 22Gerardo ValenzuelaM
  • 5Obinna NwobodoM
  • 66Ender EcheniqueM
  • 17Kenji Mboma DemF
  • 10EvanderF
  • 9Kévin DenkeyF
Substitutes
  • 24Kyle SmithD
  • 29Bryan RamirezD
  • 16Tom BarlowF
  • 15Teenage HadebeD
  • 99Ayoub JabbariF
  • 13Evan LouroG
  • 2Alvas PowellD
  • 4Nick HagglundD
  • 27Tah AnungaM
Coach: Pat Noonan
Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
  • 1Yohei TakaokaG
  • 18Édier OcampoD
  • 33Tristan BlackmonD
  • 2Mathías LabordaD
  • 28Tate JohnsonD
  • 8Oliver LarrazM
  • 20Andrés CubasM
  • 59Jeevan BadwalM
  • 25Ryan GauldM
  • 14Bruno QuiñonezM
  • 24Brian WhiteF
Substitutes
  • 7Cheick Tidiane SabalyF
  • 26Jean-Claude NgandoM
  • 41Nikola DjordjevicD
  • 4Ranko VeselinovićD
  • 19Rayan ElloumiF
  • 32Isaac BoehmerG
  • 3Sam AdekugbeD
  • 29Mihail GherasimencovD
  • 13Thomas MüllerF
Coach: Jesper Sorensen

Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs Vancouver Whitecaps

  • 22 July 2026FC Cincinnati 4–3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
  • 11 June 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 14 July 2022FC Cincinnati 2–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
  • 4 August 2019FC Cincinnati 1–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and Vancouver Whitecaps

FC Cincinnati

  • K. Denkey13 goals2 assists
  • Evander12 goals8 assists

Vancouver Whitecaps

  • B. White15 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.