Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Shabab 0-2 Al-Hilal.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Al Shabab, 27% draw, 41% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DiawG
- 17M. Al ThaniD
- 4T. JedvajD
- 3M. T. BarryD
- 40A. Al AsmariD
- 22H. Al HammamiM
- 8J. BrownhillM
- 29Y. AdliM
- 10Y. CarrascoM
- 11D. PodenceF
- 9R. B. Martinez TobinsonF
- 33M. Al MahasnehG
- 2M. Al ShwirekhD
- 94M. Al RajehD
- 74A. Al HadhoodF
- 6A. Al NashriM
- 24A. Al OboudF
- 77H. Al DubaisF
- 37A. Matuq
- 99H. Al KhorayefF
- 37BonoG
- 2M. MahzariD
- 87H. TambaktiD
- 3K. KoulibalyD
- 24M. Al HarbiD
- 22S. Milinkovic-SavicM
- 28M. KannoM
- 8R. NevesM
- 38C. SummervilleM
- 27S. MandashF
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 33M. Al OwaisG
- 44S. Al Mutairi
- 55M. Al DawoodD
- 6N. Al DawsariM
- 77N. Al HabashiD
- 18M. Al HawsawiM
- 7G. MartinelliF
- 75M. MeiteF
- 72S. DahalF
Form going into Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal
Al Shabab
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Al-Hazm30 August 2026
Al-Hilal
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Al-Ahli Jeddah1 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | Al-Hilal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 9 | +21 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Shabab and Al-Hilal
Al Shabab
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Martinelli60
- S. Milinković-Savić52
- O. Watkins45
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Hilal won 2–0 at Al Shabab. The model had made a win for Al-Hilal its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Milinkovic-Savic 53' for Al-Hilal, R. Neves (penalty) 87' for Al-Hilal. On expected goals it finished 0.77–4.04.
How the call on Al Shabab v Al-Hilal has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is Al-Hilal's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Al Shabab win32%▼ −4
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Al-Hilal win41%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.