Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-0 Al Riyadh.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Al-Ahli Jeddah, 29% draw, 25% Al Riyadh — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16E. MendyG
- 5M. SulaimanD
- 46R. HamidouD
- 3IbanezD
- 31S. BalobaidD
- 19A. BondarenkoM
- 6V. AtanganaM
- 7TrincaoM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 13GalenoM
- 17I. ToneyF
- 1A. Al SanbiG
- 72S. Al JadanyG
- 2Z. Al HawsawiD
- 30Z. Al JohaniM
- 66N. MasoudM
- 47S. Abu Al ShamatF
- 11M. Al MutairiM
- 9F. Al BuraikanF
- 21A. RadifF
- 82M. BorjanG
- 2S. Al EssaD
- 67M. Al KhaibariD
- 26R. AbascalD
- 12S. HazaziD
- 10T. OkouM
- 22V. LekhalM
- 79F. Al JayzaniM
- 14H. A. Bahri E.M
- 11H. Al Ali
- 77L. AntunesF
- 97E. FidaG
- 87M. H. TambaktiD
- 5H. MajrashiD
- 13O. Al BoardiD
- 19H. Al ShurafaM
- 16F. Al SobhiM
- 17H. Al RaqwaniF
- 29S. MatarM
- 24A. Al TaleM
Form going into Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh
Al-Ahli Jeddah
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Al-Hilal1 September 2026
- L1-3away to Al Kholood29 August 2026
Al Riyadh
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 21 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Riyadh
Al-Ahli Jeddah
GoalsAssists
- I. Toney132
- Trincão63
Al Riyadh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Riyadh 5–0. The model had made a win for Al-Ahli Jeddah its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: I. Toney (penalty) 16' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, E. Spertsyan 43' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, Trincao 45' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, I. Toney (penalty) 61' for Al-Ahli Jeddah, N. Masoud 87' for Al-Ahli Jeddah. On expected goals it finished 3.46–0.79.
How the call on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Riyadh has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Al-Ahli Jeddah's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah win46%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Al Riyadh win25%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.