Toronto FC
vs
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 35% Toronto FC, 28% draw, 37% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Toronto FC 1.21, Chicago Fire 1.26.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Toronto FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Toronto FC carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.57 for Chicago Fire. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Toronto FC D-L-D-W-D; Chicago Fire L-L-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Toronto FC and 1.26 for Chicago Fire. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toronto FC rate 0.53 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chicago Fire rate 0.69 and 1.21.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Toronto FC against 1.26 for Chicago Fire. Toronto FC's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.21 for Chicago Fire.