Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Toronto FC 4-4 Chicago Fire.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Toronto FC, 30% draw, 34% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toronto FC at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. GavranG
- 22R. LaryeaD
- 25W. ZimmermanD
- 13B. KuscevicD
- 3Matheus PereiraD
- 14A. CoelloM
- 71M. CimermancicM
- 7T. CorbeanuM
- 10D. MihailovicM
- 20D. SalloiM
- 9J. SargentF
- 23W. YarbroughG
- 19K. FranklinD
- 44R. EdwardsD
- 15N. GomisD
- 12Z. MonlouisD
- 90L. MorganF
- 38J. GilmanD
- 11D. EtienneF
- 17E. AristizabalF
- 1C. BradyG
- 24J. DeanD
- 5S. RogersD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 15A. GutmanD
- 6A. SaletrosM
- 42D. D'AvillaM
- 7M. Haile-SelassieM
- 11P. ZinckernagelF
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 44J. CohenG
- 22M. PinedaD
- 2L. BarrosoD
- 32N. AllenD
- 47S. WilliamsM
- 17R. LodM
- 29D. PorebaM
- 35S. OregelM
- 18J. GomezF
Form going into Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
- D1-1New York City FC29 August 2026
- W2-1away to Inter Miami22 August 2026
- D3-3Charlotte19 August 2026
- W2-1New England Revolution15 August 2026
- D1-1away to New York City FC31 July 2026
Chicago Fire
- D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026
- D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026
- W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026
- W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
What these results say
- Toronto FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Toronto FC | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 29 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Toronto FC and Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.