Petrolul Ploiesti
vs
Arges Pitesti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Petrolul Ploiesti 1–0 Arges Pitesti
The model makes it 43% Petrolul Ploiesti, 33% draw, 24% Arges Pitesti — fair odds of 2.33, 3.03 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Petrolul Ploiesti 1.15, Arges Pitesti 0.74.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Petrolul Ploiesti's rating is built from 54 Romanian Liga I matches and Arges Pitesti's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 760 matches.
Key facts
- Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th on 27 points from 15 games; Arges Pitesti are 13th on 15 points from 15 games — Liga I.
- Petrolul Ploiesti are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Uta Arad.
- Arges Pitesti have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Dinamo Bucuresti.
- Last 6 meetings: Petrolul Ploiesti 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Arges Pitesti 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Arges Pitesti
Has the model earned this number?
Petrolul Ploiesti at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Petrolul Ploiesti vs Arges Pitesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I
- W1-0away to Uta Arad6 November 2026
- D1-1CFR 1907 Cluj31 October 2026
- W3-1away to FC Botosani23 October 2026
- D1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Farul Constanta11 October 2026
Arges Pitesti
Liga I
- W2-1Dinamo Bucuresti6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Corvinul Hunedoara31 October 2026
- L0-1Uta Arad24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Universitatea Cluj19 October 2026
- L0-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 October 2026
What these results say
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Petrolul Ploiesti.
- Arges Pitesti conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arges Pitesti failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 27 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Petrolul Ploiesti
Chance to finish in the top six · 57% today
Arges Pitesti
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Arges Pitesti
- 24 July 2026Arges Pitesti 1–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 13 February 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 2–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 4 October 2025Arges Pitesti 0–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 19 May 2023Arges Pitesti 3–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 11 March 2023Arges Pitesti 0–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 24 October 2022Petrolul Ploiesti 2–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Petrolul Ploiesti and Arges Pitesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
GoalsAssists
- A. Bran43
- Rodrigo Martins42
Arges Pitesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Petrolul Ploiesti a 0.1% chance of the title and Arges Pitesti 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Petrolul Ploiesti the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti against 0.74 for Arges Pitesti. Petrolul Ploiesti's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.31 for Arges Pitesti.
How the model reaches 43% for Petrolul Ploiesti to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Petrolul Ploiesti to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Petrolul Ploiesti's ratings add 3 points and Arges Pitesti's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level40%−3
- Petrolul Ploiesti's ratings43%+3
- Arges Pitesti's ratings43%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Petrolul Ploiesti at home · Arges Pitesti away
League matches only, Liga I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Petrolul PloiestiArges Pitesti
Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th after 15 Liga I matches (between 2nd and 13th so far); Arges Pitesti are 13th after 15 (between 1st and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Petrolul Ploiesti 15, Arges Pitesti 15.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Petrolul Ploiesti
- vs Universitatea Craiova5 Dec · Liga Iwin 21%
- at Oțelul12 Dec · Liga Iwin 31%
- vs FC Voluntari19 Dec · Liga Iwin 57%
- at Rapid16 Jan · Liga Iwin 20%
Arges Pitesti
- at Csikszereda5 Dec · Liga Iwin 34%
- vs Universitatea Craiova12 Dec · Liga Iwin 18%
- at Farul Constanta19 Dec · Liga Iwin 24%
- vs Oțelul16 Jan · Liga Iwin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.