Regular Season - 14 · 28 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets Premier League prediction

Valeriy Lobanovsky Dynamo Stadium, Kiev

Our model says: Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 Chornomorets

The model makes it 65% Dynamo Kyiv, 22% draw, 13% Chornomorets — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Dynamo Kyiv 2.19, Chornomorets 0.72.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Dynamo Kyiv are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Dynamo Kyiv's rating is built from 41 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Chornomorets's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Dynamo Kyiv are 3rd on 23 points from 11 games; Chornomorets are 11th on 9 points from 11 games — Premier League.
  • Dynamo Kyiv are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Shakhtar Donetsk.
  • Chornomorets have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Kudrivka.
  • Last 6 meetings: Dynamo Kyiv 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 May 2025, ended Chornomorets 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv.

More Ukrainian Premier League predictions

All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets

46%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Dynamo Kyiv win Draw Chornomorets win
  1. 2–013%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 3–010%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 1–19%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Dynamo Kyiv first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Dynamo Kyiv at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets

Dynamo Kyiv

Premier League

  • D0-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk8 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Kryvbas KR2 November 2026
  • W3-1Kudrivka23 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Polessya18 October 2026
  • W1-0Karpaty11 October 2026

Chornomorets

Premier League

  • L0-1away to Kudrivka7 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Veres Rivne31 October 2026
  • D0-0Karpaty25 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Zorya Luhansk17 October 2026
  • L1-2FC Kharkiv10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Dynamo Kyiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chornomorets failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Chornomorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Dynamo Kyiv11722169+723
11Chornomorets11236813-59

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Dynamo Kyiv

Chance to finish in the top four · 80% today

Win 83%
Draw 75%
Defeat 73%

Chornomorets

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 31% today

Win 19%
Draw 27%
Defeat 33%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets

  • 18 May 2025Chornomorets 1–1 Dynamo KyivPremier League
  • 23 November 2024Dynamo Kyiv 3–1 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 2 March 2024Dynamo Kyiv 1–0 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 20 August 2023Chornomorets 3–2 Dynamo KyivPremier League
  • 13 May 2023Dynamo Kyiv 2–3 ChornomoretsPremier League
  • 6 November 2022Chornomorets 0–3 Dynamo KyivPremier League

Leading scorers: Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets

Dynamo Kyiv

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ponomarenko60

Chornomorets

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dynamo Kyiv a 5.2% chance of the title and Chornomorets 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Dynamo Kyiv Chornomorets
0.88 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.22 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.53
2.19 Model expected goals (this match) 0.72

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dynamo Kyiv the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv against 0.72 for Chornomorets. Dynamo Kyiv's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.53 for Chornomorets.

Dynamo Kyiv carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.29 for Chornomorets.

How the model reaches 65% for Dynamo Kyiv to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dynamo Kyiv to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Dynamo Kyiv's ratings add 12 points and Chornomorets's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 65%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Dynamo Kyiv's ratings55%+12
  5. Chornomorets's ratings65%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Dynamo KyivChornomorets
11Matches11
7W 2D 2LRecord2W 3D 6L
16 1.5 per gameGoals scored8 0.7 per game
9 0.8 per gameGoals conceded13 1.2 per game
6 of 11Clean sheets3 of 11
3 of 11Failed to score5 of 11
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
26 2.4 per gameYellow cards20 1.8 per game
2Red cards1
4-1-4-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Dynamo Kyiv at home · Chornomorets away

5Played5
4W 1D 0LRecord1W 0D 4L
9–2Goals for – against4–8
3 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Dynamo Kyiv 11, Chornomorets 11.

Dynamo Kyiv scored 033335
Chornomorets conceded 323302

Dynamo Kyiv score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Chornomorets have let in 2 there.

Chornomorets scored 113111
Dynamo Kyiv conceded 130112

Chornomorets score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Dynamo Kyiv have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Dynamo Kyiv

  • vs Livyi Bereh2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 67%
  • at FC Kharkiv5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
  • at Livyi Bereh12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 52%
  • vs Veres Rivne27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 73%

Chornomorets

  • at Bukovyna5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
  • at Polessya12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 12%
  • at Kolos Kovalivka27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.