Penafiel
vs
AVS
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Penafiel 2–1 AVS
The model makes it 41% Penafiel, 28% draw, 31% AVS — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Penafiel 1.67, AVS 1.29.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Penafiel are 2nd on 13 points from 6 games; AVS are 12th on 6 points from 6 games — Segunda Liga.
- Penafiel are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Felgueiras 1932.
- AVS have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Farense.
- Last 2 meetings: AVS 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 March 2024, ended Penafiel 0–1 AVS.
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Penafiel vs AVS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Penafiel at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Penafiel vs AVS
Penafiel
- W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026
- W4-1Academica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Porto B30 August 2026
- W2-0Sporting CP B23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Torreense15 August 2026
AVS
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa7 September 2026
- W2-0Feirense30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chaves23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Felgueiras 193217 August 2026
What these results say
- Penafiel went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Penafiel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Penafiel won 4 of these 5 matches.
- AVS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AVS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Penafiel | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 13 |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Penafiel vs AVS
- 3 March 2024Penafiel 0–1 AVSSegunda Liga
- 9 October 2023AVS 1–0 PenafielSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Penafiel carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.58 for AVS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Penafiel and 1.29 for AVS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Penafiel rate 0.80 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AVS rate 0.74 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Penafiel a 22.3% chance of the title and AVS 7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Penafiel the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Penafiel against 1.29 for AVS. Penafiel's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.28 for AVS.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Penafiel at home · AVS away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Penafiel 6, AVS 6.
Penafiel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); AVS have let in 1 there.
AVS score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Penafiel have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Penafiel
- at Farense24 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 33%
- vs Feirense2 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 55%
- at Chaves7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- vs Benfica B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 42%
AVS
- vs Tondela25 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at União de Leiria31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Vizela6 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- at Benfica B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
- vs Leixoes29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.