Velež
vs
Siroki Brijeg
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Velež 2–1 Siroki Brijeg
The model makes it 40% Velež, 29% draw, 31% Siroki Brijeg — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Velež 1.55, Siroki Brijeg 1.22.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Velež are 9th on 7 points from 8 games; Siroki Brijeg are 5th on 9 points from 8 games — Premijer Liga.
- Velež have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Zrinjski.
- Siroki Brijeg have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Borac Banja Luka.
- Last 6 meetings: Velež 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Velež 3–0 Siroki Brijeg.
All Bosnian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Velež vs Siroki Brijeg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velež at 40% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Velež vs Siroki Brijeg
Velež
- L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026
- W1-0FK Sarajevo13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo6 September 2026
- D1-1Radnik Bijeljina2 September 2026
- L0-3away to Čelik28 August 2026
Siroki Brijeg
- L2-3Borac Banja Luka20 September 2026
- D1-1BSK Banja Luka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zrinjski6 September 2026
- L1-2FK Sarajevo2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo29 August 2026
What these results say
- Velež failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Velež conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Velež | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Velež vs Siroki Brijeg
- 21 April 2026Velež 3–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 15 February 2026Siroki Brijeg 1–0 VeležPremijer Liga
- 11 February 2026Velež 2–1 Siroki BrijegCup
- 25 October 2025Velež 1–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 10 August 2025Siroki Brijeg 1–3 VeležPremijer Liga
- 28 March 2025Siroki Brijeg 2–5 VeležPremijer Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Velež carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.08 for Siroki Brijeg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Velež and 1.22 for Siroki Brijeg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Velež rate 0.42 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Siroki Brijeg rate 0.49 and 2.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Siroki Brijeg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Velež the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Velež against 1.22 for Siroki Brijeg. Velež's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.27 for Siroki Brijeg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Velež at home · Siroki Brijeg away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Velež 8, Siroki Brijeg 8.
Velež score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Siroki Brijeg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Velež
- vs Borac Banja Luka17 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 22%
- vs BSK Banja Luka24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 41%
- at Sloga Doboj31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 33%
- vs Čelik7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 38%
- at Radnik Bijeljina21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 32%
Siroki Brijeg
- at Sloga Doboj17 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 35%
- vs Čelik24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 40%
- at Radnik Bijeljina31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 34%
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 37%
- at FK Sarajevo21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.