Tondela
vs
Torreense
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Tondela 1–0 Torreense
The model makes it 41% Tondela, 29% draw, 30% Torreense — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tondela 1.49, Torreense 1.09.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Tondela are 9th on 9 points from 6 games; Torreense are 14th on 6 points from 6 games — Segunda Liga.
- Tondela have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Portimonense.
- Torreense have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Leixoes.
- Last 6 meetings: Tondela 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 March 2025, ended Tondela 2–2 Torreense.
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tondela vs Torreense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tondela at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tondela vs Torreense
Tondela
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
- W3-0FC Porto B5 September 2026
- L0-2away to União de Leiria28 August 2026
- L0-2Academica21 August 2026
- L0-1away to Leixoes16 August 2026
Torreense
- D0-0Leixoes11 September 2026
- W2-0away to Benfica B5 September 2026
- L0-3Vizela29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa22 August 2026
- D2-2Penafiel15 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tondela had two goals or fewer.
- Torreense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tondela vs Torreense
- 1 March 2025Tondela 2–2 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 4 October 2024Torreense 0–2 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 15 March 2024Torreense 0–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 26 November 2023Torreense 1–1 TondelaTaça de Portugal
- 5 November 2023Tondela 1–2 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 4 March 2023Tondela 1–1 TorreenseSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tondela carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.58 for Torreense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Tondela and 1.09 for Torreense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tondela rate 0.74 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torreense rate 0.72 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tondela a 12.4% chance of the title and Torreense 6.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tondela the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Tondela against 1.09 for Torreense. Tondela's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.24 for Torreense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tondela at home · Torreense away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Tondela 6, Torreense 6.
Tondela score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Torreense have let in 2 there.
Torreense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Tondela have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Tondela
- at AVS25 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs Felgueiras 193230 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 48%
- at Sporting CP B8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 35%
- vs Farense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 45%
- at Chaves28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
Torreense
- vs Sunderland15 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 32%
- at Ferencvarosi TC22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
- vs Amarante26 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 51%
- at Portimonense31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- vs Ararat-Armenia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.