PEC Zwolle
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 24% PEC Zwolle, 21% draw, 55% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 4.17, 4.76 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.42, NEC Nijmegen 2.19.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
PEC Zwolle
- L0-2Ajax9 August 2026
NEC Nijmegen
- L1-2Telstar8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen
- 24 January 2026NEC Nijmegen 2–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 25 October 2025PEC Zwolle 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 11 January 2025PEC Zwolle 0–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 29 October 2024NEC Nijmegen 4–3 PEC ZwolleKNVB Beker
- 24 August 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 14 April 2024NEC Nijmegen 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
The two sides
PEC Zwolle carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.95 for NEC Nijmegen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): PEC Zwolle L; NEC Nijmegen L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.19 for NEC Nijmegen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PEC Zwolle rate 0.78 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEC Nijmegen rate 1.17 and 0.96.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for PEC Zwolle against 2.19 for NEC Nijmegen. PEC Zwolle's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.96 for NEC Nijmegen.