Annecy
vs
Metz
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 84% Annecy, 10% draw, 6% Metz — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Annecy 3.78, Metz 1.10.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Annecy
- W2-0Rodez14 August 2026
- W1-0away to PAU8 August 2026
Metz
- D0-0away to Grenoble14 August 2026
- W2-1Guingamp8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Annecy | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Metz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Annecy
No league goals recorded yet.
Metz
- P. Fall1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Annecy carry a model rating of 7.1 against 6.59 for Metz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Annecy W-W; Metz W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.78 goals for Annecy and 1.10 for Metz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Annecy rate 1.64 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Metz rate 0.73 and 1.22.
That points to 86% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%), 3-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Annecy the highest probability at 84%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.78 expected goals for Annecy against 1.1 for Metz. Annecy's attack/defence rating is 1.64/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.22 for Metz.