Guingamp
vs
Nantes
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 21% Guingamp, 23% draw, 56% Nantes — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Guingamp 1.10, Nantes 1.91.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Guingamp
- W1-0Boulogne14 August 2026
- L1-2away to Metz8 August 2026
Nantes
- L1-2away to Laval14 August 2026
- L0-1RED Star FC 938 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Guingamp | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Nantes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Guingamp carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.99 for Nantes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Guingamp L-W; Nantes L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Guingamp and 1.91 for Nantes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guingamp rate 0.73 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nantes rate 1.06 and 0.80.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Guingamp, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nantes the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.1 expected goals for Guingamp against 1.91 for Nantes. Guingamp's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.8 for Nantes.