29 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Guingamp vs Nantes Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Guingamp 3-3 Nantes.

Before kick-off the model made it 8% Guingamp, 14% draw, 78% Nantes — fair odds of 12.50, 7.14 and 1.28. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nantes at 78% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Guingamp0%Draw3%Nantes97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Samir Ben Brahimassist: Jérémie Matumona Makanga
9'
⚽Donacien Gomisassist: Teddy Andami Averlant
15'
22'
⚽Wilitty Younoussaassist: Bahereba Guirassy
33'
Frédéric Guilbert
49'
⚽Wilitty Younoussa
🔁Stanislas Kieltout: Amadou Samoura
58'
🔁V. Muntu Wa Munguout: Tuomas Ollila
58'
🔁Florent Sanchez Da Silvaout: Tom Ducrocq
59'
🔁Jérémie Matumona Makangaout: Erwin Koffi
68'
🔁Teddy Andami Averlantout: Jasser Chamakh
68'
71'
🔁Wilitty Younoussaout: Ryad Hachem
79'
🔁Dehmaine Tabibouout: Antoine Joujou
85'
⚽Antoine Joujouassist: Lucas Perrin
88'
🔁Frédéric Guilbertout: Diockoumalang Gomes
88'
🔁Mathieu Cafaroout: Louis Leroux
90+4'
Lucas Perrin
⚽Dylan Louiserre (pen)
90+8'
⚽Donacien Gomis
90+8'
Donacien Gomis
90+8'

Match stats — Guingamp vs Nantes

41%Possession59%
14Shots20
7On target6
1Corners5

Line-ups

Guingamp 4-4-2
  • 16A. OrtolaG
  • 3J. MatumonaD
  • 7D. GomisD
  • 36A. DemouchyD
  • 39V. Muntu Wa Mungu
  • 11T. AverlantM
  • 21T. AhileM
  • 4D. LouiserreM
  • 20S. Ben BrahimM
  • 18S. KieltF
  • 8F. Sanchez Da SilvaF
Substitutes
  • 1T. Bartouche-SelbonneG
  • 2E. KoffiD
  • 5T. OllilaD
  • 24J. DiangangaD
  • 35N. FondjaD
  • 23J. ChamakhF
  • 38E. AucanM
  • 25T. DucrocqM
  • 17A. SamouraF
Coach: Sylvain Ripoll
Nantes 4-1-4-1
  • 1M. DupeG
  • 24F. GuilbertD
  • 5L. PerrinD
  • 4S. SowD
  • 98K. AmianD
  • 28I. SissokoM
  • 17D. TabibouM
  • 23W. YounoussaM
  • 8J. LepenantM
  • 20M. CafaroM
  • 11H. GuirassyF
Substitutes
  • 16A. MirbachG
  • 78T. TatiD
  • 52B. DeuffM
  • 26R. HachemM
  • 67M. GomesM
  • 69S. ZianiM
  • 19L. LerouxM
  • 7A. JoujouF
  • 49J. KoneF
Coach: Gregory Poirier

Form going into Guingamp vs Nantes

Guingamp

  • L0-1away to Sochaux21 August 2026

Nantes

  • L2-5Rodez22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Guingamp72231012-28
15Nantes7214913-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Guingamp vs Nantes

  • 19 July 2025Nantes 1–2 GuingampFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 July 2022Nantes 0–1 GuingampFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 July 2021Nantes 1–0 GuingampFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 March 2019Guingamp 0–0 NantesLigue 1
  • 4 November 2018Nantes 5–0 GuingampLigue 1

Leading scorers: Guingamp and Nantes

Guingamp

  • B. Bokangu4 goals
  • D. Gomis2 goals1 assist

Nantes

  • W. Younoussa2 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.