PEC Zwolle
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: PEC Zwolle 0–1 AZ Alkmaar
The model makes it 22% PEC Zwolle, 26% draw, 52% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.00, AZ Alkmaar 1.79.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: AZ Alkmaar are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. PEC Zwolle's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and AZ Alkmaar's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- PEC Zwolle are 13th on 12 points from 12 games; AZ Alkmaar are 5th on 23 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- PEC Zwolle are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Willem II.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to Groningen.
- Last 6 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended PEC Zwolle 3–1 AZ Alkmaar.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar
Has the model earned this number?
AZ Alkmaar at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie
- D1-1away to Willem II6 November 2026
- W1-0ADO Den Haag1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Utrecht24 October 2026
- W4-1GO Ahead Eagles18 October 2026
- L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie
- W4-3Groningen8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Ajax31 October 2026
- L0-2Twente25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Cambuur18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026
What these results say
- PEC Zwolle scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had two goals or fewer.
- AZ Alkmaar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar
- 17 January 2026PEC Zwolle 3–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 3 December 2025PEC Zwolle 1–3 AZ AlkmaarKNVB Beker
- 24 September 2025AZ Alkmaar 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 9 February 2025AZ Alkmaar 2–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 20 September 2024PEC Zwolle 1–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 20 January 2024AZ Alkmaar 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- M. Meerdink63
- R. Daal51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PEC Zwolle a 0% chance of the title and AZ Alkmaar 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for PEC Zwolle against 1.79 for AZ Alkmaar. PEC Zwolle's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.91 for AZ Alkmaar.
How the model reaches 52% for AZ Alkmaar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for AZ Alkmaar to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, PEC Zwolle's ratings add 10 points and AZ Alkmaar's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- PEC Zwolle's ratings41%+10
- AZ Alkmaar's ratings52%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
PEC Zwolle at home · AZ Alkmaar away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PEC ZwolleAZ Alkmaar
PEC Zwolle are 13th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 12th and 16th so far); AZ Alkmaar are 5th after 12 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: PEC Zwolle 12, AZ Alkmaar 12.
PEC Zwolle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); AZ Alkmaar have let in 3 there.
AZ Alkmaar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); PEC Zwolle have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
PEC Zwolle
- at Fortuna Sittard5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 22%
- vs Excelsior12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 41%
- at PSV Eindhoven20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 7%
- vs Utrecht9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 34%
AZ Alkmaar
- vs PSV Eindhoven5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 29%
- vs Sturm Graz10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 55%
- vs NEC Nijmegen13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.