NEC Nijmegen
vs
Twente
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Twente
The model makes it 25% NEC Nijmegen, 26% draw, 49% Twente — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.18, Twente 1.85.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
One-sided: Twente are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. NEC Nijmegen's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and Twente's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 14 points from 12 games; Twente are 4th on 24 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- NEC Nijmegen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Utrecht.
- Twente are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Ajax.
- Last 6 meetings: Twente 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Twente 1–1 NEC Nijmegen.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NEC Nijmegen vs Twente
Has the model earned this number?
Twente at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Twente
NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie
- W3-2away to Utrecht8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Heerenveen31 October 2026
- D2-2Groningen25 October 2026
- D2-2Fortuna Sittard18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ajax10 October 2026
Twente
Eredivisie
- D2-2Ajax8 November 2026
- W9-0away to Excelsior1 November 2026
- W2-0away to AZ Alkmaar25 October 2026
- L1-2Utrecht18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026
What these results say
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 14 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Twente
- 25 April 2026Twente 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 18 October 2025NEC Nijmegen 3–3 TwenteEredivisie
- 22 May 2025Twente 3–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 23 February 2025Twente 2–0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 10 August 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 20 January 2024NEC Nijmegen 1–0 TwenteEredivisie
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Twente
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NEC Nijmegen a 0% chance of the title and Twente 15.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.85 for Twente. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.76 for Twente.
How the model reaches 49% for Twente to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Twente to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, NEC Nijmegen's ratings add 9 points and Twente's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- NEC Nijmegen's ratings40%+9
- Twente's ratings49%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
NEC Nijmegen at home · Twente away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NEC NijmegenTwente
NEC Nijmegen are 11th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Twente are 4th after 12 (between 3rd and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: NEC Nijmegen 12, Twente 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
NEC Nijmegen
- at Sparta Rotterdam5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 42%
- at Ararat-Armenia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 62%
- at AZ Alkmaar13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 24%
Twente
- at GO Ahead Eagles6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 56%
- at Aarhus10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 46%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 73%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.