Jagiellonia
vs
Widzew Łódź
The model makes it 41% Jagiellonia, 26% draw, 33% Widzew Łódź — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.54, Widzew Łódź 1.35.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Jagiellonia
- W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026
Widzew Łódź
- D0-0away to Wisla Plock31 July 2026
- D2-2Motor Lublin26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź
- 31 January 2026Widzew Łódź 1–3 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 27 July 2025Jagiellonia 3–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 6 July 2025Widzew Łódź 7–1 JagielloniaFriendlies Clubs
- 9 March 2025Widzew Łódź 0–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 1 September 2024Jagiellonia 1–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 11 February 2024Widzew Łódź 1–3 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec2 goals
- Sergio Lozano1 goals1 assists
Widzew Łódź
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.66 for Widzew Łódź. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Jagiellonia W-W; Widzew Łódź D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Jagiellonia and 1.35 for Widzew Łódź. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.80 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Widzew Łódź rate 0.67 and 1.02.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 1.35 for Widzew Łódź. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.02 for Widzew Łódź.