Regular Season - 7 · 13 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Malavan vs Foolad FC Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Sirous Ghayeghran Stadium, Bandar-e Anzali
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Malavan 1-2 Foolad FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Malavan, 28% draw, 41% Foolad FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Malavan 1.22, Foolad FC 1.49.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Malavan vs Foolad FC

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%0-1 9%1-2 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Foolad FC at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Malavan3%Draw92%Foolad FC5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Shahriariassist: A. Karimi
4'
G. Eslamikhah
53'
🔁E. Shahriariout: F. Jafari
57'
🔁M. Beheshtiout: M. Papi
57'
61'
🔁Y. Mazraeout: A. Bagheri
61'
🔁A. Jolaniout: G. Latifi
🔁Q. Islamicout: B. Barzay
68'
🔁A. Nesaeiout: V. Asgarpour
68'
🔁A. Ramezaniout: A. Khoshkafa
74'
76'
🔁M. Mohammadiout: V. Amiri
76'
🔁S. Ansariout: M. Kazemi
80'
🔁M. Sarlakout: A. Attar
88'
⚽V. Amiri
G. Eslamikhah
89'
G. Eslamikhah
89'
90+6'
⚽A. Attar (pen)
90+11'
G. Latifi

Line-ups

Malavan
Coach: Maziar Zare

Form going into Malavan vs Foolad FC

Malavan

  • D1-1away to Aluminium Arak8 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Mes Shahr-e Babak7 September 2026
  • L0-1Nassaji Mazandaran2 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Persepolis FC29 August 2026

Foolad FC

  • W2-1Mes Shahr-e Babak8 October 2026
  • W1-0Fajr Sepasi7 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Kheybar Khorramabad2 September 2026
  • D0-0Esteghlal FC28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Malavan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Malavan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Foolad FC had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Malavan8224711-48
5Foolad FC843195+415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Malavan vs Foolad FC

  • 13 October 2026Malavan 1–2 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 22 January 2026Malavan 2–2 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 26 August 2025Foolad FC 0–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 15 May 2025Malavan 1–1 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 2 January 2025Foolad FC 2–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 27 February 2024Foolad FC 1–1 MalavanPersian Gulf Pro League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.22 goals for Malavan and 1.49 for Foolad FC; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: E. Shahriari 4' (Malavan), V. Amiri 88' (Foolad FC), A. Attar 90' (Foolad FC).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Foolad FC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Malavan against 1.49 for Foolad FC. Malavan's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.36 for Foolad FC.