Regular Season - 7 · 13 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

ZOB Ahan vs Sepahan FC Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Foolad Shahr Stadium, Isfahan
Full time1 – 2

Final score: ZOB Ahan 1-2 Sepahan FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% ZOB Ahan, 27% draw, 47% Sepahan FC — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: ZOB Ahan 1.05, Sepahan FC 1.62.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: ZOB Ahan vs Sepahan FC

53%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%0-1 11%1-2 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sepahan FC at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ZOB Ahan0%Draw2%Sepahan FC98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽M. Lotfiassist: A. Rezavand
A. Jeddi
9'
23'
⚽K. Rezaeiassist: A. Rezavand
🔁P. Mokhtariout: A. Mortazavi
32'
34'
O. Noorafkan
S. Hosseini
38'
🔁M. Ghaed Rahmatiout: B. Teymourian
53'
🔁A. Shojaeiout: J. Alimohammadi
55'
🔁R. Jafariout: A. Kazemi
76'
78'
🔁M. Lotfiout: A. Khodadadi
78'
🔁M. Limouchiout: A. Shafiedoost
⚽O. Latifi
83'
87'
A. Khodadadi
89'
🔁H. Mohammadiout: S. Karimi
A. Ghaderi
90+3'

Line-ups

Sepahan FC
Coach: Moharram Navidkia

Form going into ZOB Ahan vs Sepahan FC

ZOB Ahan

  • D1-1away to Nassaji Mazandaran8 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Persepolis FC7 September 2026
  • W1-0Paykan2 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Fajr Sepasi29 August 2026

Sepahan FC

  • W6-1Fajr Sepasi8 October 2026
  • W1-0Esteghlal Khuzestan6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Sanat Naft2 September 2026
  • W2-0Gol Gohar28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for ZOB Ahan had two goals or fewer.
  • ZOB Ahan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sepahan FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Sepahan FC won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sepahan FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14ZOB Ahan814358-37
4Sepahan FC8512136+716

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ZOB Ahan vs Sepahan FC

  • 13 October 2026ZOB Ahan 1–2 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 4 October 2025Sepahan FC 0–0 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 21 February 2025Sepahan FC 4–1 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 22 September 2024ZOB Ahan 1–1 Sepahan FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 17 April 2024Sepahan FC 1–0 ZOB AhanPersian Gulf Pro League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.05 goals for ZOB Ahan and 1.62 for Sepahan FC; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: M. Lotfi 2' (Sepahan FC), K. Rezaei 23' (Sepahan FC), O. Latifi 83' (ZOB Ahan).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sepahan FC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for ZOB Ahan against 1.62 for Sepahan FC. ZOB Ahan's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.35 for Sepahan FC.