Lyon
vs
Nice
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lyon 1–0 Nice
The model makes it 53% Lyon, 27% draw, 20% Nice — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Lyon 1.92, Nice 0.77.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Lyon are 2nd on 11 points from 5 games; Nice are 14th on 5 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- Lyon are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to Rennes.
- Nice have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Lille.
- Last 6 meetings: Lyon 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended Lyon 2–0 Nice.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lyon vs Nice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyon at 53% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lyon vs Nice
Lyon
- W4-0Rennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
Nice
- W2-1Lille20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Auxerre12 September 2026
- D1-1Le Mans5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Paris FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Lorient22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lyon went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lyon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Nice
- 15 February 2026Lyon 2–0 NiceLigue 1
- 18 October 2025Nice 3–2 LyonLigue 1
- 9 March 2025Nice 0–2 LyonLigue 1
- 1 December 2024Lyon 4–1 NiceLigue 1
- 16 February 2024Lyon 1–0 NiceLigue 1
- 27 August 2023Nice 0–0 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lyon and Nice
Lyon
- E. Nuamah3 goals1 assist
- Z. Athekame2 goals2 assists
Nice
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lyon carry a model rating of 6.98 against 6.64 for Nice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Lyon and 0.77 for Nice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lyon rate 1.07 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nice rate 0.68 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Lyon against 0.77 for Nice. Lyon's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.07 for Nice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lyon at home · Nice away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lyon 5, Nice 5.
Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Nice have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lyon
- at 1899 Hoffenheim22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at Paris Saint Germain25 Oct · Ligue 1win 25%
- vs Angers31 Oct · Ligue 1win 51%
Nice
- at Stade Brestois 2923 Oct · Ligue 1win 29%
- vs Rennes31 Oct · Ligue 1win 32%
- at Angers8 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs Paris Saint Germain21 Nov · Ligue 1win 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.