Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Mlada Boleslav 2-0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Mlada Boleslav, 29% draw, 28% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mlada Boleslav at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 59Jiří FloderG
- 32Filip MatoušekD
- 44Ondrej KarafiatD
- 3Martin KrálikD
- 11Matěj HybšD
- 17Filip ŠpatenkaM
- 76Jan ZíkaM
- 20Solomon JohnM
- 28Daniel LanghamerM
- 21Martin ŠubertM
- 23Jiří KlímaF
- 49Josef KoláříkM
- 13Denis DonátD
- 18Marek HavranM
- 26Matěj ZachovalD
- 70Jan BuryanF
- 47Marek ObdržálekG
- 42Vojtěch VorelG
- 5Harustak JanD
- 77David PechM
- 1Adam HrdinaG
- 39Jakub KlímaD
- 26Filip VedralD
- 3Kauan Carneiro KakaD
- 44Amadou DanteD
- 68Jakub JanetzkýM
- 8Patrik ČavošM
- 14Tadeáš VachoušekM
- 7Štěpán LangerM
- 10Antonin VanicekM
- 15Daniel VašulínF
- 23Petr ŠevčíkM
- 77Lucky EzehF
- 79Soliu AfolabiM
- 17Jaromír ZmrhalM
- 11Martin RymarenkoF
- 78Ondrej ProdelalG
- 4Eric HunalD
- 25Tomáš BřečkaD
- 19Bienvenue KanakimanaF
Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno
Mlada Boleslav
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pardubice15 August 2026
- W2-0Sparta Praha8 August 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
What these results say
- Mlada Boleslav scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 21 |
| 7 | Zbrojovka Brno | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno
- 29 January 2023Mlada Boleslav 0–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 13 August 2022Zbrojovka Brno 3–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 8 May 2021Zbrojovka Brno 2–3 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 16 January 2021Mlada Boleslav 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Zbrojovka Brno
Mlada Boleslav
GoalsAssists
- M. Šubert71
- J. Klíma41
- S. John33
Zbrojovka Brno
GoalsAssists
- D. Vašulín50
- A. Vaníček31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mlada Boleslav beat Zbrojovka Brno 2–0. The model had made a win for Mlada Boleslav its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Martin Šubert 7' for Mlada Boleslav, Jiří Klíma 50' for Mlada Boleslav. On expected goals it finished 1.03–2.37.
How the call on Mlada Boleslav v Zbrojovka Brno has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Mlada Boleslav's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Mlada Boleslav win43%▲ +4
- Draw29%=
- Zbrojovka Brno win28%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.