Mlada Boleslav
vs
Zbrojovka Brno
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Zbrojovka Brno
The model makes it 43% Mlada Boleslav, 29% draw, 28% Zbrojovka Brno — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.58, Zbrojovka Brno 1.06.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Mlada Boleslav wins, grey are draws, red are Zbrojovka Brno wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mlada Boleslav at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno
Mlada Boleslav
- L0-3away to Slovan Liberec12 September 2026
- W4-0Baník Ostrava6 September 2026
- W2-1Slovácko22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pardubice15 August 2026
- W2-0Sparta Praha8 August 2026
Zbrojovka Brno
- W2-1Artis12 September 2026
- L0-4away to Slavia Praha5 September 2026
- W1-0Hradec Králové2 September 2026
- W3-2Zlin29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Teplice23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mlada Boleslav | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Zbrojovka Brno | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Zbrojovka Brno
- 29 January 2023Mlada Boleslav 0–0 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
- 13 August 2022Zbrojovka Brno 3–1 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 8 May 2021Zbrojovka Brno 2–3 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
- 16 January 2021Mlada Boleslav 1–1 Zbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Zbrojovka Brno
Mlada Boleslav
- M. Šubert5 goals1 assists
- S. John3 goals3 assists
Zbrojovka Brno
- D. Vašulín4 goals
- A. Vaníček3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mlada Boleslav carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.56 for Zbrojovka Brno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.06 for Zbrojovka Brno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mlada Boleslav rate 0.79 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zbrojovka Brno rate 0.68 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zbrojovka Brno, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mlada Boleslav a 0.9% chance of the title and Zbrojovka Brno 1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mlada Boleslav the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav against 1.06 for Zbrojovka Brno. Mlada Boleslav's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.23 for Zbrojovka Brno.