Regular Season - 6 · 29 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Budapest Honved vs Zalaegerszegi TE NB I prediction

Bozsik Arena, Budapest

The model makes it 80% Budapest Honved, 14% draw, 6% Zalaegerszegi TE — fair odds of 1.25, 7.14 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Budapest Honved 2.74, Zalaegerszegi TE 0.67.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

46%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 12%3-0 11%1-0 9%

Form going into this match

Budapest Honved

  • L1-2Vasas14 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Paks9 August 2026
  • D3-3MTK Budapest1 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Kisvarda FC25 July 2026

Zalaegerszegi TE

  • L0-5away to Vasas8 August 2026
  • W5-2Paks3 August 2026
  • L0-3away to MTK Budapest27 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Budapest Honved403178-13
11Zalaegerszegi TE3102510-53

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Zalaegerszegi TE

  • 21 April 2026Budapest Honved 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TEMagyar Kupa
  • 29 June 2024Zalaegerszegi TE 1–2 Budapest HonvedFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 March 2023Budapest Honved 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
  • 22 October 2022Zalaegerszegi TE 0–2 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 29 July 2022Budapest Honved 0–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
  • 8 April 2022Zalaegerszegi TE 3–1 Budapest HonvedNB I

Leading scorers

Budapest Honved

No league goals recorded yet.

Zalaegerszegi TE

  • Calderón2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

A clear gap in the ratings

Budapest Honved carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.01 for Zalaegerszegi TE. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Budapest Honved D-D-D-L; Zalaegerszegi TE L-W-L.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.74 goals for Budapest Honved and 0.67 for Zalaegerszegi TE. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Budapest Honved rate 0.71 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zalaegerszegi TE rate 0.37 and 2.04.

That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (9%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Budapest Honved the highest probability at 80%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Budapest Honved against 0.67 for Zalaegerszegi TE. Budapest Honved's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/2.04 for Zalaegerszegi TE.