29 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc Czech Liga prediction & result

Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Ostrava
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Baník Ostrava 1-0 Sigma Olomouc.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Baník Ostrava, 27% draw, 26% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Baník Ostrava at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Baník Ostrava97%Draw3%Sigma Olomouc0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁A. Gningout: V. Skrkon
16'
37'
Abubakar Ghali
Filip Kubala
40'
⚽J. Micekassist: F. Kubala
45'
🔁M. Kohutout: A. Bewene
46'
46'
🔁D. Tkacout: M. Soldo
69'
🔁A. Ekerothout: M. Hadas
69'
🔁M. Beranout: F. Krivak
🔁D. Holzerout: A. Musak
71'
🔁F. Kubalaout: A. Traore
71'
78'
🔁V. Sejkout: H. Mikaelsson
🔁V. Jureckaout: D. Gilbert
85'
90+10'
Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson
90+4'
🔁A. Ghaliout: J. Sip

Match stats — Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc

37%Possession63%
6Shots8
3On target2
3Corners6
0.24xG0.63

Goals against chances

Baník Ostrava1 from 0.24 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sigma Olomouc0 from 0.63 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Baník Ostrava 3-5-2
  • 23M. JedlickaG
  • 44Y. Skyba
  • 83R. NoghaD
  • 42J. MicekD
  • 95D. HolzerM
  • 21M. KohutM
  • 5J. BoulaM
  • 28F. KubalaM
  • 99V. SinyavskiyM
  • 12A. GningF
  • 15V. JureckaF
Substitutes
  • 1V. BudinskyG
  • 37M. ChalusD
  • 16M. DyachukD
  • 81M. KmetD
  • 55A. MusakM
  • 7D. GilbertM
  • 18D. PlankaM
  • 8A. TraoreM
  • 22V. SkrkonF
Coach: Roman Skuhravy
Sigma Olomouc 3-4-3
  • 91J. KoutnyG
  • 2A. SyllaD
  • 33M. MalyD
  • 3L. LurvinkD
  • 70A. GhaliM
  • 88P. BarathM
  • 7M. BeranM
  • 29A. EkerothM
  • 39D. JanosekF
  • 10V. SejkF
  • 24D. TkacF
Substitutes
  • 98M. HruskaG
  • 26S. NoumbissieD
  • 22M. HadasD
  • 14M. SoldoM
  • 8J. SpacilM
  • 25M. MikulenkaF
  • 23F. KrivakM
  • 9J. KlimentF
  • 11H. MikaelssonF
Coach: Pavel Hapal

Form going into Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc

Baník Ostrava

  • W1-0Artis16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Hradec Králové9 August 2026
  • L0-4Slavia Praha1 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Zlin25 July 2026

Sigma Olomouc

  • W3-1Pardubice23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Baník Ostrava scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Baník Ostrava9315717-1010
4Sigma Olomouc95131613+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc

  • 7 February 2026Baník Ostrava 2–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 31 August 2025Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
  • 3 May 2025Baník Ostrava 0–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 22 April 2025Baník Ostrava 2–3 Sigma OlomoucCup
  • 9 February 2025Baník Ostrava 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
  • 1 September 2024Sigma Olomouc 2–2 Baník OstravaCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Baník Ostrava and Sigma Olomouc

Baník Ostrava

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Sigma Olomouc

  • V. Sejk3 goals2 assists
  • A. Ghali3 goals1 assist
  • P. Baráth3 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.