Baník Ostrava
vs
Sigma Olomouc
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 54% Baník Ostrava, 26% draw, 20% Sigma Olomouc — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Baník Ostrava 1.63, Sigma Olomouc 0.91.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Baník Ostrava
- L1-2away to Hradec Králové9 August 2026
- L0-4Slavia Praha1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin25 July 2026
Sigma Olomouc
- W2-1away to Artis9 August 2026
- D2-2Mlada Boleslav2 August 2026
- L1-2away to FK Jablonec26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Baník Ostrava | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 8 | Sigma Olomouc | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Baník Ostrava vs Sigma Olomouc
- 7 February 2026Baník Ostrava 2–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 31 August 2025Sigma Olomouc 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 3 May 2025Baník Ostrava 0–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 22 April 2025Baník Ostrava 2–3 Sigma OlomoucCup
- 9 February 2025Baník Ostrava 1–0 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- 1 September 2024Sigma Olomouc 2–2 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
The two sides
Baník Ostrava carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.62 for Sigma Olomouc. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Baník Ostrava W-L-L; Sigma Olomouc L-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.91 for Sigma Olomouc. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baník Ostrava rate 0.73 in attack and 0.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sigma Olomouc rate 0.74 and 1.18.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sigma Olomouc, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baník Ostrava the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Baník Ostrava against 0.91 for Sigma Olomouc. Baník Ostrava's attack/defence rating is 0.73/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.18 for Sigma Olomouc.