30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Plzen vs Slovácko Czech Liga prediction & result

Doosan Arena, Plzen
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Plzen 1-1 Slovácko.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Plzen, 28% draw, 26% Slovácko — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Plzen at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Plzen7%Draw91%Slovácko2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Christophe Kabongo
9'
🔁K. Spacilout: F. Prebsl
15'
Merchas Doski
19'
39'
Michal Trávník
🔁A. Sojkaout: D. Visinsky
46'
🔁C. Kabongoout: C. Souare
46'
🔁A. Gabrielout: A. Memic
46'
50'
Tihomir Kostadinov
52'
Gigli Ndefe
Sampson Dweh
57'
58'
🔁P. Juroskaout: L. Vorlicky
⚽T. Ladra
64'
69'
Martin Šviderský
Lukáš Červ
77'
79'
Andrej Stojchevski
79'
🔁M. Sviderskyout: P. Blahut
79'
🔁F. Horskyout: P. Ndubuisi
🔁T. Ladraout: S. Pirgic
80'
82'
⚽P. Ndubuisiassist: M. Travnik
85'
Tihomir Kostadinov
85'
Tihomir Kostadinov
87'
Simon Sloncik
90+5'
Milan Heča
90'
🔁G. Ndefeout: G. Sosseh

Match stats — Plzen vs Slovácko

56%Possession44%
14Shots8
4On target3
5Corners4
1.28xG0.41

Goals against chances

Plzen1 from 1.28 xGabout what the chances were worth
Slovácko1 from 0.41 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Plzen 4-2-3-1
  • 44F. WiegeleG
  • 29A. GabrielD
  • 40S. DwehD
  • 5K. SpacilD
  • 14M. DoskiD
  • 17P. HrosovskyM
  • 6L. CervM
  • 12A. SojkaM
  • 18T. LadraM
  • 25C. KabongoM
  • 80P. AduF
Substitutes
  • 1D. TapajG
  • 3D. VavroD
  • 9D. VisinskyM
  • 98F. PrebslD
  • 19C. SouareM
  • 20J. PanosM
  • 99A. MemicM
  • 36S. PirgicM
  • 7S. LawalF
Coach: Radoslav Kovac
Slovácko 3-4-2-1
  • 29M. HecaG
  • 21S. SloncikD
  • 22J. BehiratcheD
  • 4A. StojcevskiD
  • 2G. NdefeM
  • 26T. KostadinovM
  • 10M. TravnikM
  • 6M. SviderskyM
  • 20M. HavlikF
  • 77P. JuroskaF
  • 11F. HorskyF
Substitutes
  • 34P. HalouskaG
  • 19T. KralD
  • 27A. DolznikovM
  • 16G. SossehM
  • 14A. AlabiD
  • 15P. BlahutM
  • 72L. VorlickyM
  • 25P. NdubuisiD
  • 9A. MarinelliF
Coach: Jan Jelinek

Form going into Plzen vs Slovácko

Plzen

  • W5-1FK Crvena Zvezda27 August 2026
  • L0-3away to FK Crvena Zvezda20 August 2026
  • W3-2Zlin15 August 2026
  • D5-5away to Teplice8 August 2026
  • D1-1Zbrojovka Brno1 August 2026

Slovácko

  • L1-2away to Mlada Boleslav22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Plzen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Plzen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Plzen had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Plzen92431717010
15Slovácko9045716-94

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Plzen vs Slovácko

  • 6 December 2025Slovácko 3–0 PlzenCzech Liga
  • 9 August 2025Plzen 1–1 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 6 April 2025Plzen 2–0 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 3 November 2024Slovácko 1–0 PlzenCzech Liga
  • 11 May 2024Plzen 4–2 SlováckoCzech Liga
  • 21 April 2024Slovácko 1–1 PlzenCzech Liga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.