Panathinaikos vs PAOK Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Panathinaikos 3-1 PAOK.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Panathinaikos, 28% draw, 36% PAOK — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panathinaikos at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Panathinaikos vs PAOK
Line-ups
- 1Iñaki PeñaG
- 2D. CalabriaD
- 6S. de VrijD
- 55R. van DrongelenD
- 77G. KiriakopoulosD
- 22E. CamaraM
- 42K. KangwaM
- 20V. TabordaM
- 99L. GarcíaM
- 10Santino AndinoM
- 7A. TettehF
- 9C. DessersF
- 12L. ChavesG
- 8Adriano JagušićM
- 3Georgios Marios KatrisD
- 18S. KontourisM
- 70K. KotsarisG
- 26I. LouzaM
- 21A. OunahiM
- 14E. Palmer-BrownD
- 1J. PavlenkaG
- 3J. KennyD
- 6ElustondoD
- 5G. MichailidisD
- 13D. GiannoulisD
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 7B. SantamaríaM
- 14A. ŽivkovićM
- 10D. PelkasM
- 22T. AliM
- 27C. NdiayeF
- 2M. CamaraM
- 21A. BabaD
- 11TaisonF
- 97D. BataoulasD
- 52D. ChatsidisF
- 41D. MonastirlisG
- 56A. MythouF
- 47S. ShoretireF
- 25K. ThymianisD
Form going into Panathinaikos vs PAOK
Panathinaikos
- W2-0away to Levadiakos31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hradec Králové27 August 2026
- D2-2Hradec Králové20 August 2026
- W2-1away to CSKA 194811 August 2026
- D1-1CSKA 19485 August 2026
PAOK
- W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
What these results say
- Panathinaikos went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | PAOK | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs PAOK
- 6 September 2026Panathinaikos 3–1 PAOKSuper League 1
- 17 May 2026Panathinaikos 2–2 PAOKSuper League 1
- 5 April 2026PAOK 0–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
- 11 February 2026PAOK 2–0 PanathinaikosCup
- 4 February 2026Panathinaikos 0–1 PAOKCup
- 21 December 2025PAOK 2–0 PanathinaikosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and PAOK
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- V. Taborda31
- A. Tetteh30
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- D. Pelkas30
- C. Ndiaye30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.