Levadiakos
vs
Panetolikos
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 48% Levadiakos, 24% draw, 28% Panetolikos — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Levadiakos 1.80, Panetolikos 1.34.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Levadiakos
- L0-4away to PAOK23 August 2026
Panetolikos
- W3-1Asteras Tripolis23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Levadiakos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 3 | Panetolikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Levadiakos vs Panetolikos
- 19 January 2026Panetolikos 1–3 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 5 October 2025Levadiakos 6–0 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 25 July 2025Levadiakos 0–0 PanetolikosFriendlies Clubs
- 14 May 2025Levadiakos 1–2 PanetolikosSuper League 1
- 29 March 2025Panetolikos 1–2 LevadiakosSuper League 1
- 9 March 2025Panetolikos 0–0 LevadiakosSuper League 1
Leading scorers
Levadiakos
No league goals recorded yet.
Panetolikos
- K. Aleksić1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Levadiakos carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.54 for Panetolikos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Levadiakos L; Panetolikos W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Levadiakos and 1.34 for Panetolikos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levadiakos rate 0.75 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Panetolikos rate 0.68 and 1.27.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Panetolikos, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levadiakos the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for Levadiakos against 1.34 for Panetolikos. Levadiakos's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.27 for Panetolikos.