Atromitos
vs
Kalamata
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 68% Atromitos, 14% draw, 18% Kalamata — fair odds of 1.47, 7.14 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (6%).
Expected goals: Atromitos 3.56, Kalamata 1.93.
Both teams to score: 83%. Over 2.5 goals: 91%, under 2.5: 9%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atromitos
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus22 August 2026
Kalamata
- L2-3Aris Thessalonikis22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atromitos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Kalamata | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Atromitos
No league goals recorded yet.
Kalamata
- K. Vargas1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atromitos carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.48 for Kalamata. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Atromitos L; Kalamata L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.56 goals for Atromitos and 1.93 for Kalamata. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atromitos rate 0.82 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalamata rate 0.95 and 2.30.
That points to 91% for over two and a half goals and 83% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%), 4-1 (5%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kalamata, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atromitos the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.56 expected goals for Atromitos against 1.93 for Kalamata. Atromitos's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/2.3 for Kalamata.