Al Nasr vs Ajman Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Nasr 1-2 Ajman.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Al Nasr, 26% draw, 28% Ajman — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Nasr at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Nasr vs Ajman
Line-ups
- 12Ahmed ShambihG
- 24Zayed SultanD
- 4GláuberD
- 22M. HøibråtenD
- 55D. PetrovićD
- 8M. MarinM
- 7K. AgudeloM
- 70A. HrustićM
- 57I. FaizM
- 10M. GhaediM
- 9C. BediaF
- 2Salem SultanD
- 21Abdulla IdreesD
- 5Mohammad AbdulbasitM
- 77N. ChadliF
- 37S. SalemG
- 17Wesley DelgadoF
- 30João MoreiraD
- 38Moussa NdiayeM
- 6H. MahdiM
- 81A. Al HosaniG
- 12Mohamed NasserD
- 5G. ZajkovD
- 44Yuri MatiasD
- 31Y. JabriD
- 17S. GassamaM
- 8Jobson Souza SantosM
- 18I. MoumenM
- 7LourencyM
- 33LithierryF
- 9W. AzaroF
- 4S. SulimanD
- 99Victor HenriqueF
- 48Saad El HadaniM
- 22Vitor VargasD
- 14F. Ben NjimaD
- 23Ahmed Al ZeyoudiD
- 40A. R. Al ShammariG
- 11Abdulla AbdelazizM
- 3A. SalehD
Form going into Al Nasr vs Ajman
Al Nasr
Pro League
- L1-2away to Al Ain29 August 2026
- W1-0Al Wahda FC21 August 2026
Ajman
Pro League
- L0-3away to Al-Jazira29 August 2026
- W4-3Hatta SC22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Nasr and Ajman
Al Nasr
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Ajman
GoalsAssists
- Victor Henrique31
- W. Azaro20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajman won 2–1 at Al Nasr. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Nasr at 46% and given a win for Ajman 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ajdin Hrustic 26' for Al Nasr, Walid Azarou 65' for Ajman, Saad El Hadani 73' for Ajman.
How the call on Al Nasr v Ajman has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Al Nasr's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Al Nasr win46%▼ −6
- Draw26%▲ +1
- Ajman win28%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.