Raków Częstochowa
vs
Hammarby FF
The model makes it 71% Raków Częstochowa, 16% draw, 13% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 2.87, Hammarby FF 1.22.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
Hammarby FF
- D1-1away to IF Brommapojkarna26 July 2026
- W4-0Degerfors IF19 July 2026
- W2-0Kalmar FF12 July 2026
- W2-1away to IF Elfsborg5 July 2026
- L2-3away to BK Hacken31 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 15 | +18 | 27 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Raków Częstochowa
No league goals recorded yet.
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham8 goals3 assists
- V. Lind6 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Raków Częstochowa carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.36 for Hammarby FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Raków Częstochowa L-L; Hammarby FF L-W-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.87 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.22 for Hammarby FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raków Częstochowa rate 0.78 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hammarby FF rate 0.71 and 1.95.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.22 for Hammarby FF. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.95 for Hammarby FF.