Granada CF
vs
Albacete
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Granada CF 1-1 Albacete.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Granada CF, 28% draw, 26% Albacete — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Granada CF 1.83, Albacete 1.10.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Granada CF vs Albacete
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Granada CF at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Granada CF vs Albacete
Granada CF
- L0-3away to Eibar6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Cordoba30 August 2026
- W2-0Mallorca24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo15 August 2026
Albacete
- L0-2away to Castellón6 September 2026
- L0-1Oviedo29 August 2026
- L1-2Real Sociedad II22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Las Palmas16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Granada CF | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 21 | Albacete | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Granada CF vs Albacete
- 19 April 2026Albacete 4–1 Granada CFSegunda División
- 21 December 2025Granada CF 1–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 13 April 2025Albacete 0–2 Granada CFSegunda División
- 15 August 2024Granada CF 1–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 18 March 2023Albacete 1–2 Granada CFSegunda División
- 18 November 2022Granada CF 4–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Granada CF carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.45 for Albacete. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Granada CF and 1.10 for Albacete. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Granada CF rate 0.76 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Albacete rate 0.66 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Granada CF the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Granada CF against 1.1 for Albacete. Granada CF's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.48 for Albacete.