Inter Miami
vs
Nashville SC
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Inter Miami 2-2 Nashville SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Inter Miami, 27% draw, 24% Nashville SC — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Inter Miami 1.96, Nashville SC 0.99.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Inter Miami vs Nashville SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter Miami vs Nashville SC
Inter Miami
- D1-1away to Chicago Fire10 September 2026
- D2-2Atlanta United FC5 September 2026
- W7-1CF Montreal29 August 2026
- L1-2Toronto FC22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Philadelphia Union19 August 2026
Nashville SC
- L1-2away to Toronto FC9 September 2026
- D0-0away to New York City FC4 September 2026
- W4-0FC Cincinnati30 August 2026
- W3-2Columbus Crew23 August 2026
- W1-0away to New York Red Bulls19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs Nashville SC
- 16 August 2026Nashville SC 4–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 18 March 2026Inter Miami 1–1 Nashville SCCONCACAF Champions League
- 11 March 2026Nashville SC 0–0 Inter MiamiCONCACAF Champions League
- 9 November 2025Inter Miami 4–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- 1 November 2025Nashville SC 2–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 25 October 2025Inter Miami 3–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and Nashville SC
Inter Miami
- L. Messi19 goals11 assists
- L. Suárez11 goals2 assists
Nashville SC
- S. Surridge15 goals
- H. Mukhtar10 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Inter Miami carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.51 for Nashville SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Inter Miami and 0.99 for Nashville SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Miami rate 0.94 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nashville SC rate 0.64 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Inter Miami against 0.99 for Nashville SC. Inter Miami's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.28 for Nashville SC.