FC Cincinnati
vs
Charlotte
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: FC Cincinnati 3-3 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% FC Cincinnati, 27% draw, 33% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 1.80, Charlotte 1.50.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Cincinnati at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
- L0-5away to Philadelphia Union9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Nashville SC30 August 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders22 August 2026
- W2-1New York City FC19 August 2026
- D1-1away to Orlando City SC15 August 2026
Charlotte
- W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
- D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Atlanta United FC29 August 2026
- W3-1DC United22 August 2026
- D3-3away to Toronto FC19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte
- 9 May 2026Charlotte 2–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2025FC Cincinnati 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 15 March 2025Charlotte 2–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2024FC Cincinnati 1–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 30 March 2024Charlotte 1–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 23 September 2023FC Cincinnati 3–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
- K. Denkey13 goals2 assists
- Evander12 goals8 assists
Charlotte
- Pep Biel11 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Cincinnati carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.5 for Charlotte. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.50 for Charlotte. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Cincinnati rate 0.79 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlotte rate 0.69 and 1.40.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Cincinnati the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for FC Cincinnati against 1.5 for Charlotte. FC Cincinnati's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.4 for Charlotte.