12 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result

TQL Stadium, Cincinnati
Full time3 – 3

Final score: FC Cincinnati 3-3 Charlotte.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% FC Cincinnati, 28% draw, 34% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Cincinnati at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Cincinnati0%Draw5%Charlotte95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽P. Buchaassist: T. Barlow
2'
7'
⚽L. Abada
17'
⚽P. Biel (pen)
44'
🔁L. Abadaout: R. Aloko
⚽K. Denkeyassist: A. Chirila
51'
55'
⚽I. Toklomatiassist: R. Aloko
🔁T. Barlowout: B. J. Ramirez Leon
56'
70'
🔁L. de la Torreout: B. Bronico
🔁N. Hagglundout: T. Hadebe
74'
🔁A. Chirilaout: K. Fletcher
74'
Samuel Gidi
76'
77'
🔁W. Clearyout: M. Agyemang
78'
🔁I. Toklomatiout: T. Smalls
Kenji Mboma Dem
81'
83'
Rodolfo Aloko
🔁S. Gidiout: K. Smith
84'
🔁K. Mbomaout: A. Jabbari
85'
⚽K. Denkeyassist: B. J. Ramirez Leon
90'

Match stats — FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte

69%Possession31%
29Shots8
10On target4
12Corners3
2.44xG1.59

Goals against chances

FC Cincinnati3 from 2.44 xGmore than the chances were worth
Charlotte3 from 1.59 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
  • 18R. CelentanoG
  • 12M. RobinsonD
  • 4N. HagglundD
  • 88A. ChirilaD
  • 66E. EcheniqueM
  • 20P. BuchaM
  • 11S. GidiM
  • 22G. ValenzuelaM
  • 17K. MbomaM
  • 16T. BarlowF
  • 9K. DenkeyF
Substitutes
  • 13E. LouroG
  • 15T. HadebeD
  • 2A. PowellD
  • 24K. SmithD
  • 99A. JabbariF
  • 29B. J. Ramirez LeonD
  • 14K. FletcherF
  • 19S. ChirilaM
Coach: Pat Noonan
Charlotte 4-3-3
  • 1K. KahlinaG
  • 35W. ClearyD
  • 22H. KesslerD
  • 3T. ReamD
  • 14N. ByrneD
  • 28D. DianiM
  • 16P. BielM
  • 17L. de la TorreM
  • 11L. AbadaF
  • 9I. ToklomatiF
  • 10A. Saint-MaximinF
Substitutes
  • 21T. MillerG
  • 39J. NeeleyD
  • 4A. PrivettD
  • 44M. AgyemangD
  • 13B. BronicoM
  • 37R. AlokoF
  • 20B. CoulibalyM
  • 25T. SmallsF
  • 71N. RichmondF
Coach: Dean Smith

Form going into FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte

FC Cincinnati

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to Philadelphia Union9 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Nashville SC30 August 2026
  • D1-1Seattle Sounders22 August 2026
  • W2-1New York City FC19 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Orlando City SC15 August 2026

Charlotte

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
  • D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Atlanta United FC29 August 2026
  • W3-1DC United22 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Toronto FC19 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Cincinnati failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Charlotte went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Charlotte scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FC Cincinnati321110116673-743
5Charlotte32148105948+1150

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte

  • 9 May 2026Charlotte 2–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 10 August 2025FC Cincinnati 0–1 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 15 March 2025Charlotte 2–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 13 July 2024FC Cincinnati 1–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 30 March 2024Charlotte 1–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 23 September 2023FC Cincinnati 3–0 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Cincinnati and Charlotte

FC Cincinnati

GoalsAssists

  • K. Denkey173

Charlotte

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toklomati Giorno155

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Cincinnati and Charlotte drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Cincinnati at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: P. Bucha 2' for FC Cincinnati, L. Abada 7' for Charlotte, P. Biel (penalty) 17' for Charlotte, K. Denkey 51' for FC Cincinnati, I. Toklomati 55' for Charlotte, K. Denkey 90' for FC Cincinnati. On expected goals it finished 2.44–1.59.

How the call on FC Cincinnati v Charlotte has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is FC Cincinnati's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. FC Cincinnati win38%▼ −4
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Charlotte win34%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.