12 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result

ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Columbus Crew 0-1 New York Red Bulls.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Columbus Crew, 30% draw, 28% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Columbus Crew at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Columbus Crew0%Draw4%New York Red Bulls96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

66'
🔁M. Dos Santosout: D. Padelford
66'
🔁J. Ruvalcabaout: C. Cowell
69'
Ronald Donkor
Santiago Rodríguez
70'
🔁G. Tapiaout: J. Martinez
71'
73'
Mohammed Sofo
🔁S. Rodriguezout: T. Habroune
75'
80'
🔁A. Mehmetiout: D. Ruiz
80'
🔁J. Hallout: E. M. Choupo-Moting
🔁L. Giacconeout: J. Thiare
82'
🔁A. Gomesout: D. Chambost
83'
89'
⚽R. Donkorassist: C. Harper
Steven Moreira
90+2'
90'
🔁C. Harperout: D. Nelich

Match stats — Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls

59%Possession41%
12Shots15
4On target5
7Corners3
1.47xG1.43

Goals against chances

Columbus Crew0 from 1.47 xGless than the chances were worth
New York Red Bulls1 from 1.43 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Columbus Crew 3-4-3
  • 28P. SchulteG
  • 31S. MoreiraD
  • 25S. ZawadzkiD
  • 18M. AmundsenD
  • 26L. GiacconeM
  • 50T. KarumanchiM
  • 20A. GomesM
  • 11B. LennonM
  • 10B. MendezF
  • 33G. TapiaF
  • 8S. RodriguezF
Substitutes
  • 24E. BushG
  • 1N. HagenG
  • 3E. BaillyD
  • 12C. RuvalcabaD
  • 16T. HabrouneM
  • 7D. ChambostM
  • 14A. SejdicM
  • 77J. MartinezF
  • 19J. ThiareF
Coach: Laurent Courtois
New York Red Bulls
  • 34E. HorvathG
  • 12D. NealisD
  • 26T. ParkerD
  • 14J. BazanD
  • 56M. Dos SantosD
  • 48R. DonkorM
  • 15A. MehmetiM
  • 37M. SofoM
  • 17C. HarperF
  • 16J. HallF
  • 11J. RuvalcabaF
Substitutes
  • 77J. McCarthyG
  • 6R. VoloderD
  • 59D. PadelfordD
  • 8D. RuizM
  • 60S. KoneM
  • 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
  • 7C. CowellF
  • 10E. ForsbergM
  • 92D. NelichF

Form going into Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls

Columbus Crew

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
  • W3-0Colorado Rapids5 September 2026
  • L1-3New England Revolution30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Nashville SC23 August 2026
  • L1-2CF Montreal19 August 2026

New York Red Bulls

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
  • L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
  • D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
  • L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026

What these results say

  • Columbus Crew scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Columbus Crew had three goals or more.
  • Columbus Crew failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • New York Red Bulls did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • New York Red Bulls conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for New York Red Bulls had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Columbus Crew32125155249+341
10New York Red Bulls32116154359-1639

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls

  • 13 May 2026New York Red Bulls 3–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 18 October 2025Columbus Crew 3–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 30 August 2025New York Red Bulls 0–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 3 November 2024New York Red Bulls 2–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
  • 29 October 2024Columbus Crew 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

New York Red Bulls won 1–0 at Columbus Crew. The model had leaned towards a win for Columbus Crew at 42% and given a win for New York Red Bulls 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: R. Donkor 89' for New York Red Bulls. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.43.

How the call on Columbus Crew v New York Red Bulls has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is New York Red Bulls's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Columbus Crew win42%▲ +4
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. New York Red Bulls win28%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.