Columbus Crew
vs
New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Columbus Crew 0-1 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Columbus Crew, 31% draw, 33% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Columbus Crew 1.22, New York Red Bulls 1.11.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Columbus Crew at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls
Columbus Crew
- L1-2away to DC United9 September 2026
- W3-0Colorado Rapids5 September 2026
- L1-3New England Revolution30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Nashville SC23 August 2026
- L1-2CF Montreal19 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
- L0-2away to Los Angeles FC10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
- L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls
- 13 May 2026New York Red Bulls 3–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 18 October 2025Columbus Crew 3–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 30 August 2025New York Red Bulls 0–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 3 November 2024New York Red Bulls 2–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 29 October 2024Columbus Crew 0–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Columbus Crew carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.54 for New York Red Bulls. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.11 for New York Red Bulls. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Columbus Crew rate 0.60 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York Red Bulls rate 0.67 and 1.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Columbus Crew the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Columbus Crew against 1.11 for New York Red Bulls. Columbus Crew's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.25 for New York Red Bulls.