Kalmar FF
vs
Djurgardens IF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 41% Kalmar FF, 26% draw, 33% Djurgardens IF — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kalmar FF 1.48, Djurgardens IF 1.29.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kalmar FF
- D0-0away to Vasteras SK FK23 August 2026
- L0-4Hammarby FF16 August 2026
- L2-3away to IFK Goteborg9 August 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken1 August 2026
- W2-1Mjallby AIF25 July 2026
Djurgardens IF
- L1-3AIK Stockholm16 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vasteras SK FK10 August 2026
- W6-0Vasteras SK FK3 August 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF25 July 2026
- D0-0away to Orgryte IS20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Djurgardens IF | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Kalmar FF
- C. Rosenquist7 goals1 assists
Djurgardens IF
- K. Lien10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kalmar FF carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.41 for Djurgardens IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Kalmar FF W-D-L-L-D; Djurgardens IF D-W-W-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Kalmar FF and 1.29 for Djurgardens IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kalmar FF rate 0.48 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Djurgardens IF rate 0.68 and 1.63.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Djurgardens IF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kalmar FF a 0% chance of the title and Djurgardens IF 0.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kalmar FF the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Kalmar FF against 1.29 for Djurgardens IF. Kalmar FF's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.63 for Djurgardens IF.