Mjallby AIF
vs
IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 45% Mjallby AIF, 19% draw, 36% IFK Goteborg — fair odds of 2.22, 5.26 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 2.56, IFK Goteborg 2.30.
Both teams to score: 83%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mjallby AIF
- W4-3Sirius15 August 2026
- L0-1IF Elfsborg8 August 2026
- L1-2away to Kalmar FF25 July 2026
- D0-0Vasteras SK FK17 July 2026
- L1-2AIK Stockholm11 July 2026
IFK Goteborg
- D1-1IF Elfsborg23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Degerfors IF16 August 2026
- W3-2Kalmar FF9 August 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF2 August 2026
- L1-4away to Sirius26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mjallby AIF | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 23 | +1 | 20 |
| 12 | IFK Goteborg | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mjallby AIF carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.48 for IFK Goteborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Mjallby AIF L-D-L-L-W; IFK Goteborg L-W-W-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.56 goals for Mjallby AIF and 2.30 for IFK Goteborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mjallby AIF rate 0.77 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IFK Goteborg rate 0.81 and 1.76.
That points to 86% for over two and a half goals and 83% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mjallby AIF the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 2.3 for IFK Goteborg. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.77/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.76 for IFK Goteborg.