Malmo FF
vs
AIK Stockholm
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 71% Malmo FF, 16% draw, 13% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 1.41, 6.25 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Malmo FF 2.86, AIK Stockholm 1.21.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Malmo FF
- W1-0away to Gais16 August 2026
- L1-2Degerfors IF9 August 2026
- W2-1away to IF Brommapojkarna2 August 2026
- L1-2IF Elfsborg26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Kalmar FF20 July 2026
AIK Stockholm
- W3-1away to Djurgardens IF16 August 2026
- W4-3away to Orgryte IS8 August 2026
- L0-3Orgryte IS2 August 2026
- D0-0away to BK Hacken27 July 2026
- W2-0Gais18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Malmo FF | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 27 | +5 | 26 |
| 5 | AIK Stockholm | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
AIK Stockholm
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Malmo FF carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.21 for AIK Stockholm. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Malmo FF D-L-W-L-W; AIK Stockholm W-D-L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.86 goals for Malmo FF and 1.21 for AIK Stockholm. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malmo FF rate 0.71 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AIK Stockholm rate 0.58 and 2.13.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AIK Stockholm, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Malmo FF a 0% chance of the title and AIK Stockholm 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.86 expected goals for Malmo FF against 1.21 for AIK Stockholm. Malmo FF's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.13 for AIK Stockholm.