IFK Goteborg
vs
IF Elfsborg
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 60% IFK Goteborg, 21% draw, 19% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 2.22, IF Elfsborg 1.20.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IFK Goteborg
- W3-2Kalmar FF9 August 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF2 August 2026
- L1-4away to Sirius26 July 2026
- W2-1IF Brommapojkarna17 July 2026
- L0-4away to Malmo FF12 July 2026
IF Elfsborg
- W1-0away to Mjallby AIF8 August 2026
- W2-1away to Malmo FF26 July 2026
- L1-3Sirius19 July 2026
- L0-1away to Gais12 July 2026
- L1-2Hammarby FF5 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | IFK Goteborg | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 16 |
| 6 | IF Elfsborg | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
IFK Goteborg carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.43 for IF Elfsborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): IFK Goteborg L-W-L-W-W; IF Elfsborg L-L-L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.20 for IF Elfsborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IFK Goteborg rate 0.79 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IF Elfsborg rate 0.64 and 1.49.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour IF Elfsborg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IFK Goteborg the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for IFK Goteborg against 1.2 for IF Elfsborg. IFK Goteborg's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.49 for IF Elfsborg.