Sirius
vs
BK Hacken
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 82% Sirius, 12% draw, 6% BK Hacken — fair odds of 1.22, 8.33 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Sirius 3.09, BK Hacken 0.79.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sirius
- W2-0away to Halmstad3 August 2026
- W4-1IFK Goteborg26 July 2026
- W3-1away to IF Elfsborg19 July 2026
- W2-1away to IF Brommapojkarna12 July 2026
- D4-4Mjallby AIF3 July 2026
BK Hacken
- L0-3away to Hammarby FF9 August 2026
- D1-1Kalmar FF1 August 2026
- D0-0AIK Stockholm27 July 2026
- W2-0away to Halmstad19 July 2026
- L3-4away to Orgryte IS11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 17 | +25 | 41 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sirius
- R. Ure15 goals2 assists
- I. Bjerkebo11 goals5 assists
BK Hacken
- G. Lindgren7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Sirius carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.2 for BK Hacken. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sirius D-W-W-W-W; BK Hacken L-W-D-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.09 goals for Sirius and 0.79 for BK Hacken. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sirius rate 0.94 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; BK Hacken rate 0.47 and 1.74.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sirius a 98.4% chance of the title and BK Hacken 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 82%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.09 expected goals for Sirius against 0.79 for BK Hacken. Sirius's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.74 for BK Hacken.