IF Brommapojkarna
vs
Degerfors IF
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 47% IF Brommapojkarna, 29% draw, 24% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: IF Brommapojkarna 1.34, Degerfors IF 0.88.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IF Brommapojkarna
- L1-2Malmo FF2 August 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF26 July 2026
- L1-2away to IFK Goteborg17 July 2026
- L1-2Sirius12 July 2026
- D1-1Gais6 July 2026
Degerfors IF
- W2-1away to Malmo FF9 August 2026
- L0-2away to IFK Goteborg2 August 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF25 July 2026
- L0-4away to Hammarby FF19 July 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | IF Brommapojkarna | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
IF Brommapojkarna carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.23 for Degerfors IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): IF Brommapojkarna D-L-L-D-L; Degerfors IF L-L-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 0.88 for Degerfors IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IF Brommapojkarna rate 0.50 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Degerfors IF rate 0.37 and 1.42.
That points to 38% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IF Brommapojkarna the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna against 0.88 for Degerfors IF. IF Brommapojkarna's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.42 for Degerfors IF.